OPINION
JULY 15, 2009
The Bernanke Market
We won't get real growth until Congress and Treasury get policy right.
By ANDY KESSLER
I remember once buying the stock of a small company and I couldn't believe my luck. Every time my fund bought more shares the stock would go up. So we bought even more and the stock kept climbing. When we finally built our full position and stopped buying the stock started dropping, ending up at a price below where we started buying it. We were the market.
Just about every policy move to right the U.S. economy after the subprime sinking of the banking system has been a bust. We saved Bear Stearns. We let Lehman Brothers go. We forced Merrill Lynch, Wachovia and Washington Mutual into the hands of others. We took control of Fannie and Freddie and AIG and even own a few car companies, pumping them with high-test transfusions. None of this really helped.
We have a zero interest-rate policy. We guaranteed bank debt. We set up the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to buy toxic mortgage assets off bank balance sheets. But when banks refused to sell at fire sale prices, we just gave them the money instead. Dumb move. So we set up the Public-Private Investment Program to get private investors to buy these same toxic assets with government leverage, and still there are few sellers. Meanwhile, the $1 trillion federal deficit is crowding out private investment and the porky $787 billion stimulus hasn't translated into growth.
At the end of the day, only one thing has worked -- flooding the market with dollars. By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't put money directly into the stock market but he didn't have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn't go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market.
The good news is that Mr. Bernanke got the major banks, except for Citigroup, recapitalized and with public money. June retail sales rose 0.6%. Housing starts jumped 17% month to month in May and will likely be flat for June. Second quarter GDP may be slightly up. And he was successful in spreading a "green shoots" psychology throughout the media. But the real question is, now what? Government interventions are only meant to light a fire under the real economy and unleash what John Maynard Keynes called our "animal spirits." But government dollars can't sustain growth.
Like it or not, the stock market is bigger than the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. The stock market anticipates only future profits and prosperity, not government-funded starter fluid. You can only fool it for so long. Unless there are real corporate profits from sustainable economic growth, the stock market is not going to play along. It's the ultimate Enforcer.
In mid-May, Mr. Bernanke's outlook seemed to change. Maybe he didn't approve of the sharp housing rebound -- like we need more houses! Maybe he saw inflation in commodity prices -- oil popping to $72 from $35. Or, more likely, he finally realized that he was the market and took his foot off the money accelerator, as evidenced in the contracting monetary base (see nearby chart). Sure enough, things rolled over -- the market dropped 7.5% from its peak, oil prices dropped almost 17%, and even gold has lost some of its luster. But in July, the Fed started buying again and the market rallied.
Can the U.S. economy stand on its own two feet without Mr. Bernanke's magic dollar dust? Eventually, but apparently not yet. Unemployment stubbornly hit 9.5% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Housing prices are still dropping, albeit at a slower pace, and foreclosures are still rampant.
But I think what really bothers the market is that the structural problems that got us into trouble in the first place still exist. We took the easy way out and, with the help of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's loose "stress tests," swept banking problems under the carpet. We waved off mark-to-market accounting and juiced bank stock prices to help them recapitalize, but all those toxic mortgage assets on bank balance sheets are still there as anchors on lending. All the pump priming and stock market flows didn't get rid of them.
Hats off to Mr. Bernanke for getting the worst behind us. He'll be pressured politically to keep pumping out dollars, but he should resist the urge. The stock market will ignore his dollars if it doesn't believe they'll turn into real profits. Green jobs and government health-care clerks do not make a productive, sustainable economy. That can only come from innovative companies with access to growth capital. The stock market won't turn bullish until it sees that type of economy.
Again, when it's clear that you are the market you have to stop buying and begin tackling the hard stuff. By not restructuring banks, by not getting bad loans off bank balance sheets, by not standing up to the massive increases in government debt crowding out private capital, the Fed and Treasury are holding back real economic growth.
Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of "How We Got Here" (Collins, 2005).
What You Will Find Here
- OJOS11
- Articles and news of general interest about investing, saving, personal finance, retirement, insurance, saving on taxes, college funding, financial literacy, estate planning, consumer education, long term care, financial services, help for seniors and business owners.
READING LIST
-
▼
2009
(202)
-
▼
July
(16)
- Updating the Model Portfolio (from thestreet.com)
- More on MLPs (from Barrons)
- Getting Back What You Lost (NY Times)
- Deadline for Lehman Brothers Claims is September 2...
- Home Prices in Your City (Bizjournals.com)
- A Fresh Look at Variable Annuities (from the Wall ...
- Beware Title Insurance Fees ( from WSJ )
- CIT Group Tender Offer (news release)
- Carbon Trading for Profit (Wall St & Tech)
- Investing for Income: MLPs (WSJ)
- How to Create the Next Bull Market ( WSJ Opinion)
- Latest Downgrades to Junk - Fallen Angels (Bloombe...
- When to take Social Security? It can pay to wait (...
- Working, Medicare and Social Security - When You N...
- Do Tax-Free Bonds Make Sense for You ? Depends on...
- Municipal Bond Default ( Bloomberg )
-
▼
July
(16)
Blog List
-
-
The EU Is Spending Billions on Hydrogen-Ready, But Where’s the Hydrogen? - I'm all in favor of hydrogen-powered plants to produce electricity if only we had cheap hydrogen. But we don't and likely won't.
-
How Companies Dodge Tariffs - Protectionist trade policies are popular on both the left and right. But some economists say they’re likely to backfire.
-
Neom wants to build a 1,500-foot infinity pool that's almost 4 times longer than one in Dubai - The pool planned for the Treyam region of Saudi Arabia's Neom megaproject will be 1,500 feet long and suspended 220 feet above the sea if completed.
-
Everybody Else Is Reading This - Snowflakes That Stay On My Nose And Eyelashes Above The Law Trump’s New Birth Control […]
-
Maximizing Employer Stock Options - Oct 29 – On this edition of Lifetime Income, Paul Horn and Chris Preitauer discuss the benefits of employee stock options and how to best benefit from th...
-
Wayfair Needs to Prove This Isn't as Good as It Gets - Earnings were encouraging, but questions remain about the online retailer's long-term viability.
-
Hannity Promises To Expose CNN & NBC News In "EpicFail" - *"Tick tock."* In a mysterious tweet yesterday evening to his *3.19 million followers,* Fox News' Sean Hannity offered a preview of what is to come from ...
-
Don’t Forget These Important Retirement Deadlines - *Now that fall is in full swing, be sure to mark your calendar for steps that can help boost your tax-advantage retirement savings.*