Top 10 Technology Trends : 2010 to 2020 (Allianz)

Top 10 Tech Trends of the Coming Decade
Ba
10/22/2010

Walter Price, portfolio manager for the Allianz RCM Technology Fund, discusses the key themes that will drive growth in the technology sector over the next decade.


When the market evaluated the internet’s potential in 1999-2000, it enthusiastically anticipated robust tech earnings growth but it was too early and too extreme. Ten years on after numerous adjustments, we are about to enter a new secular growth era in the technology industry, as a number of key developments are coming together to provide the potential for positive change. The technology sector will continue to evolve over the next couple of years, setting the stage for what we believe will be an extended extraordinary growth in corporate profitability.

Walter Price, portfolio manager for the Allianz RCM Technology Fund, comments: In today’s world of short memories and short–term focus, it is easy to overlook the continued rapid fundamental changes that have taken place over the last decade in the technology sector. When looking forward to the next ten years, while there are a number of key areas we have already seen growth in, such as the LED TV, there are also some brand new developments in this sector which are still yet to be widely adopted. Therefore, these are the areas to watch for future investment opportunities as they will be the products which will potentially have the most rapid and increased growth over the next 10 years. The top 10 technological trends that we believe will play a key part in this growth over the next 10 years are:

1. Internet TV / video
The function of the PC will transform, primarily, into a consumption device for information and entertainment. We expect recommendation engines will grow significantly in importance and media content will be freely available over the internet.

2. LED technology
LEDs can offer 90 per cent energy savings and a significantly longer lifespan in comparison to regular light bulbs. Over the next few years, LED technology will likely cross quality and cost thresholds for widespread replacement of indoor and outdoor lighting, starting a considerable investment cycle.

3. Cloud computing
This is the biggest trend in enterprise computing since the late 1980s, and it is enabling businesses to move to a more efficient IT model. Cloud Computing offers large cost savings and a great amount of scalability and flexibility. For most large companies this will be a two part journey moving to an internal cloud of fewer, large data centers before eventually moving to external cloud vendors

4. Smart grid/energy infrastructure
The electrical grid is often referenced as the world’s most complicated machine, yet it is hopelessly outdated, and it can no longer adequately balance future supply and demand without huge investments. Neither higher penetration of renewable nor large scale electric car deployment will be feasible without smart grid investments.

5. Proliferation of access points and democratization of computing
Access to computing resources, for a long time the domain of the desktop computer and later the laptop, is fast being complemented by many others, such as smart phones, tablets, TVs and navigational devices. Interaction is moving away from keyboards to a variety of touch, voice and gesture–aided access.

6. Solar
Prices are falling every year so that within the foreseeable future solar power systems will likely come much closer to delivering electricity at grid parity in even challenging environments.

7. Display technology
A transition to OLED display in the coming decade has started, which can provide thin, low–power, better–picture, bendable and low-cost displays.

8. Rechargeable batteries
Significant growth in storage batteries will be required for mobile devices, hybrid cars and power plant electricity storage. This is in addition to the progress currently underway to increase energy density of storage systems.

9. Gesture recognition and the evolution of the user interface
The Windows-icon-mouse-pointer–based user interface has been around for almost 40 years. The introduction of motion-based technologies from game consoles and the evolution of user-device interaction (gesture recognition, eye tracking, speech-to-speech translation, etc.) may lead to a complete refresh cycle of hardware, software and peripherals—the iPad is just a first initial step in this direction.

10. Global connectivity: 50 billion connected devices in 10 years’
time The vision of a tenfold increase in wirelessly connected devices over the next ten years, we believe, will continue to be one of the biggest drivers of technology this decade, with the next billion first-time users coming via smart phones, not the PC world.

Smart Grid Technology (Business Week)

Smart Grid Technology October 5, 2009, 8:18PM EST The Coming Energy Revolution
Smart-grid technology will bring huge savings to companies as varied as Cisco, PG&E, and Cargill, and to consumers, too. But who will foot the bill?
By Rachael King

Food producer Cargill is taking a carving knife to its electricity bills. At a plant in Springdale, Ark., where the company handles about 50,000 turkeys a day, electricity bills run more than $2 million a year. But Cargill thinks it can cleave $680,000 from the total by using its own generators on high-demand days.

The secret behind this money-saving plan lies in what's known as the smart grid—a wholesale revamp of the system that distributes energy to homes and businesses around the country. Government bodies and utility providers are in the early stages of this multibillion-dollar upgrade to transform the existing grid into a two-way network where power and information flow in both directions between the utility and the customer, not just from the provider to the user.

Done right, the revamp will cut bills, reduce consumption, give users more say in the kinds of energy they use, and even let customers produce their own energy and sell it back to power providers. "What's going to happen with the smart grid is that we're going to create a network that's larger than the Internet," says Guido Jouret, chief technology officer for the emerging-technologies group at Cisco Systems (CSCO), one of the many companies working on the technology needed to modernize the electric grid.

A $20 Billion Market in Five Years
The Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research and design group, estimates that it will cost $165 billion, or roughly $8 billion a year for 20 years, to create the smart grid. The market for the gear needed to overhaul smart-grid communications alone may reach $20 billion a year in five years, Cisco estimates. Other technology companies developing smart-grid software and hardware include IBM (IBM), Oracle (ORCL), Google (GOOG), and Siemens (SI).

The tech sector's interest is fitting considering the similarities between the energy-grid upgrade and the computing revolution of the 1980s that saw hulking, centralized mainframes give way to PCs. The existing U.S. power grid dispenses electricity but is limited in its ability to gather intelligence from end users—hence the monthly visit from a meter reader. Now utilities are replacing outmoded meters with so-called smart meters that foster a back-and-forth between customer and utility. In much the same way PCs opened the door to third-party software and services and use of the Internet, smart meters are paving the way for tools and services that make the system more responsive to shifts in energy demands.

Cargill is counting on smart-grid tech to lower its bills. Many utility vendors set rates for industrial customers based on peak-use patterns. So in a common practice known as peak-shaving, Cargill taps its own generators to keep its 365,000-square-foot Springdale plant cool on summer's hottest days rather than use energy from its electricity vendor, PowerSecure (POWR). The challenge is determining when peaks occur. PowerSecure keeps close tabs on Cargill's generators, as well as fluctuating electricity prices, and when it can tell that rates are on course to pass certain preset thresholds, it fires up Cargill's generators remotely.

Easier to Opt for Solar or Wind
In the future, Cargill may choose to run its generators more often and sell power back to the utility when prices are high, says PowerSecure CEO Sidney Hinton. While Cargill's utility provider doesn't currently purchase energy generated by customers, other utilities, including PG&E (PCG) in California, have begun buying solar energy generated by customers on corporate campuses and residential rooftops.

Another benefit is that customers may soon get more leeway in determining the nature of the power they purchase, more easily opting for renewable energies such as solar and wind, says Matthew Trevithick, a partner at venture capital firm Venrock. Companies that are actively trying to cut their carbon footprints, such as Coca-Cola (KO), may be able to specify the percentage of renewable energy they buy, opting to pay more for wind, for example, if it helps them meet go-green targets.

But questions abound over who will foot the bill for the grid's modernization. The American Recovery & Reinvestment Act has allocated $4.5 billion in grants and loans through the Energy Dept. for the smart grid to enhance security and to ensure reliability of the electric grid to meet growing demand.

What of the remaining costs? Often, capital improvement expenses are passed along to customers. Before that, though, utilities need a green light from state regulators. "Certain states will go first because of cost," says David Leeds, an analyst specializing in the smart grid for Greentech Media. For instance, he says that in California, electricity costs 15¢ per kilowatt hour, compared with about 5¢ in Georgia.

Discounts for Lower Peak Usage
California utilities are leading the way in smart-meter installation. Northern California's PG&E is the leader, spending $2.2 billion to deploy 5.4 million smart meters, according to a Greentech Media report. Southern California Edison is No. 3, spending $1.63 billion on 4.8 million smart meters. (Columbus (Ohio)-based American Electric Power (AEP), with a goal of installing 5 million meters, lands between the two California utilities.)

Utilities stand to benefit from smarter-grid technology, too—particularly during high-demand periods. When demand for electricity exceeds supply, such as on hot summer days when air conditioners are running, utilities must find additional power or potentially face blackouts. Some are forced to tap expensive, natural gas-burning power plants that are kept for just such a purpose. Alternatively, utilities can buy power on demand from the spot market. The problem in either scenario is that rates charged for electricity remain constant even when the cost of supplying it can surge. As a result, utilities may lose money on hot days even though consumers are using more power.

Many utilities have encouraged consumers to voluntarily engage in energy efficiency, but changing consumer behavior can be challenging. For example, Southern California Edison has used the slogan "Give your appliances the afternoon off" for decades to try to get customers to reduce the strain on the grid from 2 p.m. to 7 p.m., when millions of customers turn on large appliances such as clothes washers and dishwashers. While energy-efficiency programs have helped reduce consumption, the utility stands to make even bigger gains with the installation of smart meters.

Plants Can Keep Going During Storms
But as information on usage is extended further to the residence or business, customers will be able to see just how much energy their lighting, air conditioning, and appliances use. "The idea is that electricity costs more at peak-demand times, so if you showed those pricing signals to people, they can choose to shift usage to off-peak times," says Jeffrey Taft, global smart-grid chief architect at Accenture (ACN). The smart grid will also give utilities the ability to automatically turn down business and consumer appliances on peak days. Customers would probably be given some sort of discount in exchange for letting the utility cut power to certain systems at key times of the day.

In Springdale, Ark., the local utility once faced a high-demand day and called and asked Cargill to fire up its generators and separate from the grid—and paid the company to do so. "In the long run it netted out a lower cost for us," says Cargill Engineering Manager Jim Edwards. Those generators have come in handy at other times, too. When there was a big ice storm in Northwest Arkansas this past winter, Cargill ran the generators for six days straight to keep producing turkey meat. "We were the only facility in this area to continue processing products," says Edwards. "If the plant had been closed for those six days, it would have lost about $1.2 million."

King is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in San Francisco.

Where the Jobs Will Be (WSJ)

Landing a Job of the Future Takes a Two-Track Mind
Career Experts Say Positions in Growing Fields Will Require an In-Demand Degree Coupled With Skills in Emerging Trends


By DIANA MIDDLETON

If you're gearing up for a job search now as an undergraduate or returning student, there are several bright spots where new jobs and promising career paths are expected to emerge in the next few years.

Technology, health care and education will continue to be hot job sectors, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' outlook for job growth between 2008 and 2018. But those and other fields will yield new opportunities, and even some tried-and-true fields will bring some new jobs that will combine a variety of skill sets.



The degrees employers say they'll most look for include finance, engineering and computer science, says Andrea Koncz, employment-information manager at the National Association of Colleges and Employers. But to land the jobs that will see some of the most growth, job seekers will need to branch out and pick up secondary skills or combine hard science study with softer skills, career experts say, which many students already are doing. "Students are positioned well for future employment, particularly in specialized fields," Ms. Koncz says.

Career experts say the key to securing jobs in growing fields will be coupling an in-demand degree with expertise in emerging trends. For example, communications pros will have to master social media and the analytics that come with it; nursing students will have to learn about risk management and electronic records; and techies will need to keep up with the latest in Web marketing, user-experience design and other Web-related skills.

Technology Twists

More than two million new technology-related jobs are expected to be created by 2018, according to the BLS. Jobs that are expected to grow faster than average include computer-network administrators, data-communications analysts and Web developers. Recruiters anticipate that data-loss prevention, information technology, online security and risk management will also show strong growth.

The Next Finance Hiring Hot Spots
A computer-science degree and a working knowledge of data security are critical to landing these jobs. Common areas of undergraduate study for these fields include some of the usual suspects, such as computer science, information science and management-information systems.

But those might not be enough. That's because not all of those jobs will be purely techie in nature. David Foote, chief executive officer of IT research firm Foote Partners, advises current computer-science students to couple their degrees with studies in marketing, accounting or finance. "Before, people widely believed that all you needed to have were deep, nerdy skills," Mr. Foote says. "But companies are looking for people with multiple skill sets who can move fluidly with marketing or operations."

Social media has opened the door to the growth of new kinds of jobs. As companies turn to sites like Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook to promote their brands, capture new customers and even post job openings, they will need to hire people skilled in harnessing these tools, Mr. Foote says. In most cases, these duties will be folded into a marketing position, although large companies such as Coca-Cola Co. are creating entire teams devoted exclusively to social media.

Similarly, employment for public-relations positions should increase 24% by 2018. Job titles—like interactive creative director—will reflect the duality of the required skill sets.

Back to School
Students will have to study strategy to maximize relationships between third-party content providers and their company's Web team. Other key skills will be search-engine optimization to maximize Web traffic and marketing analytics to decipher the company's target demographic, says Donna Farrugia, executive director of Creative Group, a marketing and advertising staffing agency in Menlo Park, Calif.

Many universities and community colleges are offering certification programs focused on burgeoning sectors. For example, the University of California at Los Angeles's extension program offers a certificate in information design.

That, program, like similar certificate studies at other schools, aims to give students an edge in Web site search optimization—a major attraction for Web-based companies who want to boost user traffic, says Cathy Sandeen, dean of UCLA's extension program.

User-experience design—a sort of architecture for information that Web viewers see—is another emerging field. Jobs there include experience specialists and product designers at firms ranging from computer-game companies to e-commerce Web sites.

Ms. Sandeen says the school will offer a certificate program for user-experience design as well, at a cost of about $3,000 to $5,000. The program will run one to two years, depending on a student's schedule, and will couple product design with consumer psychology and behavior.

"Our students [will] learn to think like anthropologists, evaluating how easy it is to utilize the products," she says.

Not surprisingly, green technology, including solar and wind energy and green construction, are also booming areas. Engineers who can mastermind high-voltage electric grids, for example, will have a great advantage over other job applicants, says Greg Netland, who oversees recruiting for the U.S., Latin America and Canada for Sapphire Technologies, an IT staffing firm in Woburn, Mass. that is a division of Randstad.

"Global sustainability will become more important to employers," Mr. Netland says. "It cuts costs, making experts in the field highly attractive to employers."

Jobs in alternative-energy systems, including wind and solar energy, will require a variety of skills: engineers to design systems, consultants who will audit companies' existing energy needs, and those who will install and maintain the systems.

Financial Opportunities
Despite the slashing of positions seen in the financial sector during the economic crisis, recruiters also expect thousands of new jobs to be created in the compliance field, says Dawn Fay, district New York/New Jersey president of Robert Half International.

Ms. Fay counsels job seekers to look at the misdeeds of the past year or two to identify where new jobs will bloom in the financial sector. "It was a year of Ponzi schemes and banking meltdowns," she says. "Be strategic and position yourself as someone who can mitigate those risks."

That makes risk management an emerging specialty with strong growth in jobs expected. Those on track to be financial analysts can get additional certification in risk management through organizations like the Risk Management Association or the Risk and Insurance Management Society.

"Risk management was a mainstay in financial companies, but I believe it will be present in every Fortune 500 company," says Jeff Joerres, chairman and chief executive officer at staffing firm Manpower Inc.

Hospital Upgrades
Health care is expected to continue to see a surge in hiring, with more than four million new openings estimated by 2018, according to the BLS. Hiring for physical and occupational therapists will likely be strongest. But new specialties are popping up, particularly in case management, says Brad Ellis, a partner with Kaye Bassman International, an executive-search firm based in Plano, Texas.

Case managers do everything from managing the flow of information between practitioner and insurance company to mitigating risk to the hospital.

"If you're a licensed nurse, for example, getting a certificate in risk management from the state board of health would make you extremely competitive," Mr. Ellis says.

Harris Miller, president of the Career College Association in Washington, D.C., says IT will be increasingly important in the quest to drive down health-care costs, too. Students specializing in nursing informatics, which combines general nursing with computer and information sciences, at the master's degree level will swap a clipboard for a smart phone to manage patient data. Schools like Vanderbilt University are offering nursing informatics degrees via distance learning, and certification is offered through American Nurses Credentialing Center, based in Silver Springs, Md.

The strong push toward making medical records and information more accessible through computerized record-keeping means opportunity, Mr. Miller says. "This is going to require people who are skilled in the hardware and software of nursing informatics."

Write to Diana Middleton at diana.middleton@wsj.com

Growing Market for LEDs (WSJ, Japan Times)

NOVEMBER 5, 2009, 4:12 P.M. ET
Cree To Light Up 650 Wal-Mart Stores' Aisles With LEDs

By Sari Krieger
Of DOW JONES CLEAN TECHNOLOGY INSIGHT
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Attention Wal-Mart shoppers: Cree Inc. light-emitting diodes will soon be lighting up the retail giant's stores in various aisles.

Durham, N.C.-based Cree said Wednesday that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) signed a deal with the company to buy two kinds of its LED lights, which the retailer will install in 650 of its stores in the first year. Although the companies wouldn't disclose the value of this deal for Cree, or exactly how many lights Wal-Mart bought, this move has larger implications for the LED lighting industry and Cree.

"I think it's an important milestone in what we've been calling the LED lighting revolution," said Cree Chief Executive Chuck Swoboda in an interview with Clean Technology Insight. "It demonstrates that LED lighting really works in commercial lighting applications."

Swoboda called this deal an "initial roll out," but he wouldn't say whether Wal-Mart has expressed interest in buying more LED lights, otherwise known as solid-state lighting.

Wal-Mart didn't return a call requesting comment.

The adoption of LED technology, and Cree's products specifically, by the retail giant could soon bring other retailers knocking at their door. Swoboda said that once some municipalities started using outdoor LED lighting, others soon followed suit. The retail arena should be similar, Swoboda said he hopes, because he thinks that once some companies try LED lights and can show some positive results, others will be less gun-shy about switching to the technology.

Wal-Mart bought Cree's LRP-38s, a spot light, to illuminate some of its products. This light lasts 50,000 hours, consumes 82% less energy than the 70-watt ceramic metal-halide bulbs it replaces and can last more than five years when kept on all the time. These lights also make products displayed under them look more vivid and they don't radiate heat down, helping delay product spoilage, as the company demonstrated at the Lightfair International Convention in May, held in New York. Cree rolled out the LRP-38 at the convention.

The deal also includes use of Cree's LR6 recessed can lights in some Wal-Mart new construction, but the companies wouldn't give further details on how many or where they will be used. The LR6 has similar specifications to the LRP-38, but it is a more general-purpose light, rather than a spot light.

Theo O'Neill, an analyst with Kaufman Bros. LP, said in an interview that this initial roll out brings Cree about $4 million to $8 million in revenue.

"It's obviously a plus for Cree," O'Neill said. "Plus it will help with industrial expansion of this business. There are five billion light bulbs in the U.S. and they are all going to convert to solid-state lights eventually. Big, big business."

O'Neill has a "hold" rating on the stock and a $36, 12-month price target. He doesn't own shares of the company and Kaufman Bros. makes a market in shares of Cree.

Jed Dorsheimer, an analyst with Canaccord Adams Inc., who has been consistently bearish on Cree's stock, acknowledged the significance of the deal. He doesn't own shares of Cree and Canaccord Adams conducts no business for Cree. He has a $45 price target and a "hold" rating on shares of Cree.

"It's also great to see Wal-Mart transition to solid-state lighting, as they did with refrigeration," Dorsheimer said. "Typically, they lead the market by one to two years."

Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart has already installed LED lights in its refrigerator and freezer cases and is considering using LED parking lot lights, it said recently.

Shares of Cree climbed Wednesday $1.92, or 4.5%, to $44.70 on Nasdaq. Shares of Wal-Mart increased 89 cents, or 1%, to $51.27 on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight covers news about public and private clean-technology and alternative-energy companies.)

-By Sari Krieger, Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight; 212-416-2016; sari.krieger@dowjones.com



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BUSINESS SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
Lighting Firm to Unveil LED Bulb
By SARI KRIEGER

Lemnis Lighting Inc. plans to announce this week the full-scale release in the U.S. market of a light-emitting diode bulb, its entry in the race to replace 60-watt incandescent lights.

As consumers look to cut down on energy use and the federal government's 2012 ban on incandescent bulbs approaches, sales of compact fluorescent lights have increased. These spiral-shaped lights use much less energy than traditional incandescent lights, which waste most of the energy they draw. CFLs also last seven to 10 times longer than incandescents.

But light-emitting diodes, or LEDs, promise a next generation of lights that are even more efficient, last longer, are more easily dimmable and, unlike CFLs, don't contain mercury.
Lemnis Lighting says its Pharox light looks like a traditional incandescent light, with a metal piece wrapped around the midsection of the light that acts as a heat-sink, keeping the LEDs cool and ensuring a long life of 35,000 hours, or about 20 years of normal household use. The bulbs are pricey, though, costing about $40 each.

Its light output looks like what consumers expect from a soft white incandescent light, as opposed to the harsher, blue-hue from a cool white often seen from fluorescents in offices and hospitals.

The LED light draws 6 watts and puts out the same amount of light as a 40-watt bulb if used right-side-up, such as in a desk lamp, or the equivalent of a 60-watt bulb if used in an upside-down application, due to the nature of LEDs.

Lemnis Lighting is owned by Tendris Holding, a business incubator and operator in sustainable technology and services based in Naarden, Netherlands. Both Lemnis and Tendris are run by Warner Philips, the grandson of Royal Philips NV co-founder Anton Philips. Tendris was formed in 2002 with investments from its insiders and friends and family. Philips is a 10% shareholder in Tendris.

Mr. Philips said in an interview that Lemnis is in talks with major U.S. retailers to sell the Pharox product.

Coming up with a quality, affordable 60-watt replacement light has been a challenge for the LED industry, partially for the reason that LEDs are by nature directional sources of light, as opposed to traditional incandescents that shine in 360 degrees. Top LED companies have been concentrating mostly on directional light sources for commercial and industrial purposes, which make up the bulk of the lighting market.

But the Department of Energy recently established the Bright Tomorrow Lighting Prize, known as the L-prize, which is a competition for companies to come up with the best 60-watt replacement light. The DOE said last week that more than 425 million 60-watt incandescent light bulbs are sold each year in the U.S. alone, representing approximately 50% of the incandescent light bulb market.
So far Amsterdam, Netherlands-based Philips is the only company to submit a product.

The DOE said an LED replacement for this purpose could save 34 terawatt-hours of electricity in one year, enough to power the lights of 17.4 million U.S. households and avoid 5.6 million metric tons of carbon emissions annually.

New York-based Lighting Science Group Corp. has a 40-watt incandescent LED replacement that the company says draws about 7 watts, lasts 40,000 hours and is dimmable.

Thomas Griffiths, an LED industry expert, said in an interview that he sees these three companies as the main competitors at the moment on the LED replacement light scene. Griffiths said the Pharox light looks like a good product, but only time will tell for sure, and he thinks the $39 sticker price is still too high.

Lemnis offers a three-year warranty on the product and the company estimates that an average utility rate of 15 cents per kilowatt-hour, a consumer will achieve a payback within three years.

"I think they're representing where the state of the technology affordably has us right now, but there's still a ways to go before there's a real replacement, and right now Philips is the one to watch because of this announcement," Mr. Griffiths said.

Philips said in a statement that it is confident its product meets the criteria of the L-prize, which calls for a higher level of efficiency, better quality light and more light output than the Lemnis and Lighting Science products.

Although Philips and Lemnis are competitors in this context, Philips acquired an equity stake in Tendris in January.

Mr. Philips said that if Lemnis, with the help of Los Angeles-based partner Digital Light LLC, can reach its goal of selling 10 million lights world-wide within the next 24 months, the price could drop to $30 per bulb.

Griffiths said LED replacement lights need to reach the $15 to $20 range before they'll really be viable.

Tendris' first investment was Oxxio, a supplier of renewable energy, which was sold to Centrica PLC in 2005. That exit gave Tendris at least $39 million more to play around with. The same year, the Dutch National Postcode Lottery also bought a 10% stake in Tendris, giving the company more capital to push its innovations out into the market.

Lemnis, based in Hertogenbosch, Netherlands, was founded in 2005 and is on the verge of profitability, Mr. Philips said in an earlier interview.

Mr. Philips said he isn't looking for an exit with Lemnis, but he said long-term partnerships are always a possibility.

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved


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LED light bulbs fly off shelves as price war starts


By YOSUKE FUKUOKA
Kyodo News
Light-emitting diode lights are selling like hot cakes since prices dropped by half this year.

The surge in demand for the new generation of light bulbs has quickly emptied store shelves, prompting more manufacturers to jump into the market.

LED lights first appeared about a decade ago, but their poor brightness limited them to emergency use. Recent advances in longevity and brightness, however, have turned their fortunes around completely.

Today's LED bulbs cost as little as ¥4,000 but boast a longevity of 40,000 hours, which is about 40 times the life span of incandescent bulbs. They also consume nearly 90 percent less electricity than incandescent bulbs.Compared with fluorescent light bulbs, LED lamps are six times more durable and use at least 40 percent less energy.

Rising public awareness of environmental issues is also boosting LED sales. Countries embarking on "green" initiatives are letting incandescent bulbs fall by the wayside as they move to save energy.

Under the previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party, then Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Akira Amari announced a plan last year to cease production and sales of incandescent bulbs by 2012.

As a result, demand for LED bulbs is outpacing supply.

"We are swamped by orders and just can't keep pace with demand," said Takahisa Uzumaki, senior manager at Toshiba Lighting & Technology Corp., a unit of Toshiba Corp., which developed LED bulbs in 2007.

Sales of LED lights spiked this summer as prices began to come down. At one large store in Tokyo's Akihabara electronics shopping district, "Sold Out" signs were seen at the LED light section.

"Many customers buy LED bulbs just to try them out," said a shop clerk.

In June, Sharp Corp. unveiled a plan to sell LED bulbs for about ¥4,000, less than half the price of products made by other companies. Then more manufacturers, including Panasonic Corp. and NEC Corp., entered the fray.

Competition is heating up because startups founded only five or six years ago have entered the market, since it doesn't take large facilities to mass-produce LED bulbs. That's one of biggest differences of LEDs over incandescent and fluorescent lamps.

As new companies crowd into the LED business, Toshiba Lighting is taking on the challenge by halving its prices. Their bulbs now retail for under ¥5,000.

The Toshiba group is fostering the business and betting it will turn into a hot sector.

"We intend to boost annual LED lighting sales to ¥350 billion by March 2016 from the current ¥20 billion," said Masashi Muromachi, a senior executive at the parent firm.

Sharp aspires to raise annual sales to ¥50 billion in the near future.

With energy conservation a matter of global concern, manufacturers also anticipate brisk demand abroad. Toshiba aims to get overseas sales to account for 30 percent or more of its total LED sales by the year ending in March 2016.

Panasonic is also setting its eyes on foreign markets.

While they are experiencing a sudden burst of popularity, LED bulbs still leave something to be desired technologically. They are more expensive and less bright than their fluorescent counterparts.

The new type of light bulb can become standard in every household only when manufacturers address and overcome these weaknesses.

The Japan Times: Friday, Oct. 23, 2009
(C) All rights reserved

What to do about the Falling Dollar (Credit Suisse)

The Dollar Is the First Victim of the Recovery


Joy Bolli, Online Publications Credit Suisse


14.09.2009 Over the last few weeks, stock markets have been performing positively – optimism seems to be back. According to Giles Keating, Head of Credit Suisse Global Economics & Strategy Group, this optimism is based on real facts. However, what is good for the world economy doesn't look to be so good for the dollar.

Joy Bolli: Giles, what's behind all this good news?
Giles Keating: First of all, the economy is recovering more strongly than most people expected – albeit from a very low base: We still have lots of unused capacity and we still have high unemployment, but things are moving in the right direction. Secondly, there is a lot of cash out there. Many investors were left behind given the strength of the early pick-up in the stock market. Now they are wondering if they shouldn't be putting their money to work. And thirdly, the policy makers - central banks, governments - have signaled that they are going to maintain a very expansive economic policy, that they are going to keep interest rates very low for a long time, and that they are going to continue their fiscal spending.


What are the risks going forward?
Clearly, one risk is that this economic recovery won't continue, and some economists are very concerned that things might start to drop off when the current rather strong momentum is over in perhaps two or three months' time. The consensus in the Credit Suisse Economic and Strategy Group is, however, that this risk is not very high. On balance, we think that the recovery will continue, given the expansiveness in monetary and fiscal policies. Another risk is that we could actually see some markets moving ahead too strongly, for example some commodity prices. And that, of course, could create trouble elsewhere.


Does this mean that the next bubble is just around the corner?
I think there is a small risk that there's a bubble around the corner. It's more likely that the problem of a bubble lies perhaps 12 months, 24 months or maybe slightly longer into the future. We do know that the financial markets are very prone to lurch between crash and bubble. The very strong medicine that's currently being administered in terms of very low interest rates is great for getting us out of the slump. But history tells us that it does tend to lead us toward the next bubble. So I think there is a risk, but right now it is more likely that we will see prices tending to move up in a number of areas, though probably not reaching into bubble territory for quite some time.


Amid all this good news, the dollar seems to be in trouble. Just a temporary weakness, or a fundamental problem?
The dollar has seen some big downward movements over the last couple of weeks, and although we think that this won't continue in a straight line, we do think it likely that the dollar will continue to weaken over the next six to twelve months. This can be expected to happen both against the major currencies like the euro and the Swiss franc, as well as against some of the high yielders like the Australian dollar and even some of the emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real. So we are recommending diversification out of the dollar.


What makes the dollar so weak?
Interest rates are, of course, very low in the United States, at almost zero. Although they are low in other countries as well, historically the dollar has needed an interest rate premium - a higher interest rate - than in Europe in order to remain stable or rise in value. Another key reason is that, strangely, as financial conditions get less risky and become more stable, people tend to move out of the dollar. Moreover, a lot of people put money into the dollar during the crisis, and now they have too many dollars. And finally, financial transactions were made by some of the world's major banks at the end of last year since they had to buy dollars in order to square up their balance sheets. That effect is now more or less over. For some banks, this is actually going into reverse, so they are now selling dollars.


Do all investors share this rather pessimistic view of the dollar?
No, of course this is a controversial issue, and I know that many investors, although they recognize the dollar problem, also see problems with other major currencies like the euro. But we believe that there are many financial forces that will boost the euro against the dollar. We would therefore recommend a diversification strategy for those who don't feel entirely confident with the euro. In fact, we consider it a good idea for all investors to diversify broadly into a number of other currencies, as well as – to a lesser extent - into precious metals like gold.

Which industry will surprise us with good news in the next six months?
I think a number of them could, but one in particular that my colleagues and I at Credit Suisse would pick out is the technology sector. We have already begun to see parts of the tech sector move up from very low levels. And as we move forward, there are several very favorable factors here. It's not so much consumer demand, although that could play a bit of a role; rather, it's greater demand from companies that cut back their IT expenditure in a big way during the slump. This, along with some new technologies that are coming through, leads us to think that this sector could perform rather well.


And which commodities will be among the best performers?
We think precious metals can continue to move up. At this current time, gold for example has just broken through the 1000 dollar level, and we think it could certainly head to somewhere around the 1100 level. And some of the other precious metals like platinum could continue higher. We are slightly more cautious about base metals such as copper. We think their inventories have gotten somewhat too high. Regarding oil, some of the bigger countries in OPEC are not keen to see oil get too strong. So we think the trend is up, but perhaps not dramatically so.

Clean Water Technology (from Forbes.com)

Out Of The Labs
Water Wizardry
Jonathan Fahey, 08.26.09, 6:00 AM ET


Seventeen billion gallons of sweet, fresh water are produced from salty water every day, enough to slake the thirst of 350 million people. Yet scientists don't really know how it is done.

Good thing they at least know how to make the process, which takes lots of energy, better.

Many desalination plants remove salt by forcing seawater against a membrane that allows fresh water through, but not salt ions. This is called reverse osmosis, and anyone with a set of taste buds can tell that it works. But scientists still haven't been able to model exactly what is going on.

"I can make you a membrane that does what you want," says Eric Hoek, a professor at UCLA's Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science. "But I can't give you an equation that describes it."

Hey, whatever works. Hoek developed a membrane now in the process of being commercialized by a start-up company called NanoH20 that the company says could double the amount of fresh water produced per day compared with conventional membranes.

Desalination is booming worldwide, both because there are ever more people who need ever more scarce, fresh water and because desalination has been getting cheaper. Part of this is because desalination plant designers have incorporated clever energy recovery devices to reduce the amount of power needed to run the plants. (See "Making Sweet Water From (Almost) Perpetual Motion.") And part is due to big improvements in membrane technology.

Nikolay Voutchkov of Water Globe Consulting says membranes have gotten 2.5 to 3 times more efficient in the last decade, helping to drive the cost of desalinated water down from $6 to $7 per 1,000 gallons of fresh water to between $2.50 and $3.20.

But Jeff Green, chief executive of NanoH20, says that while costs came down through about 2003, they started to level off and even creep up a little because improvement of current membrane technology stalled.

In order to squeeze the salt out of water, seawater has to be pushed against the reverse osmosis membrane at very high pressures. Engineers have made the membranes, which are polymers very similar to Kevlar, stronger, more uniform and better at rejecting salt. But whenever they try to increase production by increasing their permeability, too much salt gets through.

"Polymer chemistry has been around for decades," says Green. "These membranes have been optimized."

Another issue: These membranes, constantly wet, are wonderful places for bacteria to flourish. The membranes get fouled and have to be treated with chemicals or replaced.

Hoek, a member of UCLA's Water Technology Research Center, knew that one way to both get water through faster and to make things less hospitable to bacteria was to incorporate so-called hydrophilic, or water-loving materials.

Current membrane polymers are hydrophobic; water beads on them like on a recently waxed car. That increases the pressure needed to force water through, and it creates comfy microscopic dry patches for bacteria to grab onto.

Hoek decided to try some well-known, porous, clay-like materials called zeolites, made of alumina and silicates. He knew particles of 100 nanometers could be made with pore sizes as small as just 0.2 nanometers, about the same size as a water molecule, but smaller than the 0.8 nanometer size of a salt ion. "We wanted to make a pore that water wanted to go into," he says.

People have tried (and are still trying) to make pure-zeolite films, but have failed in part because they are too difficult to control and too expensive to manufacture.

Hoek decided to make the zeolite nanoparticles first, then bake them into conventional polymers. The nanocomposite result wasn't quite as hydrophilic as pure zeolite, but also not as hydrophobic as plain polymers.

Also, he was able to add tiny traces of silver onto the nanoparticles, which act as an antimicrobial and make them even more resistant to bacteria. (See: Pure Bioscience Looks for a Silver Lining.)

He put his new nanoparticle-spiked polymers through the ringer, exposing them to high-pressure water and thriving bacteria. The results were good enough that NanoH20 was able to raise $15 million from venture capitalist firms Khosla Ventures and Oak Investment Partners to try to commercialize it.

NanoH20's Green says the company has modified Hoek's work substantially to improve and perfect the nanoparticle membrane, but he won't say how. He says the company is targeting nearly 100% improvement in water production, from 6,000 to 7,500 gallons per day per eight-inch area of membrane to 12,000 gallons per day. The membrane will be the same size and shape as current membranes, so plants won't have to be retrofitted. The company is building enough capacity to produce "tens of thousands" of membranes--a big plant incorporates 10,000 to 20,000. The first membranes will go on sale early next year.

Hoek, though, remains steadfastly humble about his discovery. "I threw one material that was already known into this membrane that was already known," he shrugs.

If they work, these membranes will be an impressive step in reducing the cost and energy required to deliver fresh water. If we still don't understand the physics of what's going on? The water will taste just as sweet.

Free Financial Help ( PC Magazine's Recommended Websites)

Free Financial Help for Tough Times

PC Magazine reviews free websites for budgeting, monitoring your accounts, and keeping track of bills

Mini-Links let you track your followers (New York Times)

May 4, 2009
Mini-Links to Web Sites Are Multiplying
By JENNA WORTHAM
If you have spent any time on the Internet in the last few months, chances are you have clicked on a shortened link Web address.

URL shorteners, which abbreviate unwieldy Web addresses into bite-size links, have been around for years. The most popular service, TinyURL.com, was started in 2002 by a unicyclist named Kevin Gilbertson.

But the tools have soared in popularity recently, in part because of microblogging sites like Twitter and Facebook, where messages are limited in length and every character counts.

URL shorteners are easy to build, and dozens of competitors have proliferated, with minimalist, character-conserving names like Bit.ly, Is.gd and Tr.im. Most of them are simple tools created as a labor of love with no real business model behind them.

Shorteners, however, could have real value beyond making Web addresses more manageable, said Danny Sullivan, editor of the blog Search Engine Land.

They have the ability to keep track of use — how many times a particular link was clicked and the geographic location of the clickers — which could be valuable to marketers, news outlets and companies looking to measure the impact of a link, tweet or mention online.

“The tracking element is very important,” said Mr. Sullivan. Some tools even highlight comments posted to Facebook or FriendFeed about a particular link — features that standard tools like Google Analytics may not be able to provide.

One popular link shortening service, Bit.ly, is trying to build a business around that kind of data.

Betaworks Studios is a New York technology incubator that has invested in Tumblr, a microblogging tool; OMGPOP, a social gaming site; and Outside.in, a hyperlocal news aggregator. It developed Bit.ly as an internal tool for its portfolio of companies to use.

“It emerged as much more than that,” said John Borthwick, the chief executive of Betaworks. “Everyone from Dell to Demi Moore is on Twitter and could want to track their emerging social system.”

Since Bit.ly was introduced last year, its volume has soared. The company says that now 50 million Bit.ly links are clicked each week — more than double the rate of early April. “And next week, we’re expecting to hit 60 million,” said Andrew Weissman, the chief operating officer of Betaworks.

The growth has attracted venture financing. Bit.ly recently announced that it had raised $2 million from investors that included Alpha Tech Ventures, the software industry pioneer Mitch Kapor and the early Google investor Ron Conway.

“The Web has been devoid of a feedback loop for a while,” said Christopher Sacca, an investor who has financed several Web start-ups, including Bit.ly, Twitter and Photobucket.

Because Bit.ly tracks its clipped URLs in real time, no matter where they are posted — instant messages, Twitter, Facebook, blogs or e-mail — the service could become “a real source for extracting information about how people are using the Web,” Mr. Sacca said.

In addition to tracking links, Bit.ly uses a service called Calais, developed by Thomson Reuters, that can extract semantic terms from the Web pages that Bit.ly users are redirected to. This allows Bit.ly track the most popular topics being shared across the Web, as well as zero in on a specific category like finance or health care and retrieve the most popular Web sites shared on that subject in the last 24 hours.

The company hopes that being able to track the “social distribution of information in real-time,” as Mr. Borthwick describes it, could potentially be relevant to the future of Web search.

Although Bit.ly is not yet sure how to make money from all this data, “there’s a business model here,” Mr. Borthwick said. “We can smell it.”

For all the convenience of short URLs, some Internet security experts worry that they could be used to camouflage spam and phishing attacks and redirect people to malicious Web sites.

“People have no way to know where they’re going,” said Patrik Runald, chief security advisor at F-Secure Security Labs, a maker of security software. “These services are great and they serve a purpose, but at the same time, there is a darker side.”

And if a shortening site shuts down, any links funneled through it would be lost forever, Mr. Runald said.

Bit.ly says it is developing an archive system to keep links from decaying and employs several filters and a preview function in Firefox and TweetDeck, a desktop application for Twitter, to help cut back on spam.

Given the ease of use, the bigger threat to start-up companies like Bit.ly is that major corporations will create their own custom URL shorteners to bolster their brands. Digg, StumbleUpon and FriendFeed recently unveiled shortening services, and it would be easy for the big social networks, like Facebook or Twitter, to create their own. And there is always the chance that a heavyweight like Google will step in and obliterate the competition.

“That’s always a risk, but we’re racing to establish ourselves in the market,” said Mr. Weissman. “We’re willing to bet that innovation comes from weird little corners of the Internet, like this.”

Solar Cell Companies (from Fortune Magazine)

Solar stocks for a rainy day
The industry has taken a beating in the market lately, but a few standouts may shine in the long run.

By Michael V. Copeland, senior writer
November 4, 2008: 5:14 AM ET

Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/03/technology/copeland_solar.fortune/index.htm




(Fortune Magazine) -- No one loves Arnold Schwarzenegger more than the solar industry. Kicking off the nation's largest gathering devoted to all things sunny, the California governor won thunderous applause and two standing ovations from the crowd of 20,000 at the San Diego Convention Center. "What's green for the environment can also be green for the economy," he said. "Solar is the future; it's now; it can't be stopped."

For those four days in October, the Solar Power International 2008 convention drew attendees from 70 countries and generated lines stretching out the door for parking, food, and just about everything else. It seemed as if the power of the sun could conquer all. You wouldn't have guessed that just a week before, the financial meltdown had felled sector after sector, including the once-shining solar industry.

It's not that this swelling crowd thinks the macroeconomic troubles the world faces won't affect the solar industry; they know they will. All the leading solar companies have already seen the value of their stocks plummet far more than the 36% the Nasdaq has dropped from the beginning of the year to Oct. 21. The value of the Claymore/MAC global solar energy index (TAN), an ETF comprising global solar stocks, has dropped 56% since it started trading in mid-April.

Given the uncertainty of the economy, some analysts fear that the solar industry's customers could have trouble financing utility-scale solar projects that use lots of modules. Most residential solar installations, which can cost $20,000 to $30,000, require homeowners to borrow, and that money has all but disappeared. Subsidies in Spain, a huge market in recent years, are decreasing, and it is an open question whether countries that have new subsidies coming online, like Italy, Greece, and France, will fill the void.

In contrast to the 1980s - when solar companies got swept away by cheap oil, withdrawn government subsidies, or steep economic downturns - the sense this time is that the industry is here to stay. And not just stay and survive, but stay and flourish. Concern over climate change, combined with falling prices for solar technology, has made this source of carbon-free electricity more attractive than ever. The worldwide market for solar energy roughly doubled last year, to $33 billion, and analysts expect revenues to grow 33% a year for the foreseeable future. What began as a technology championed by tree huggers and pot growers is now a global market that Lux Research, based in New York City, says will reach about $100 billion in sales within the next five years. Germany, Japan, and Spain rank as the top markets for solar power, but other Western European nations are coming on fast, as are China and the U.S. As part of the bailout package, Congress extended the 30% investment tax credits for clean energy, which should give a boost to the American market.

'A real industry'
"Solar has become a real industry," says Marc Porat, a Silicon Valley veteran and chairman of green-building-materials company Serious Materials. Porat was at the conference in San Diego scouting for solar-electricity generating systems for another green project of his. Looking around the hall packed with startups selling everything from tools for manufacturing solar cells to rooftop hardware for mounting equipment to software for analyzing power needs, Porat emphasizes his point. "You can see that all the gaps in the market have been filled by multiple companies," he says. "It's the same with any good entrepreneurial opportunity."

After 30-plus years of steady improvement, solar electric technology is going mainstream. Photovoltaic (PV) panels, which convert sunlight directly into electricity, can increasingly be found on residential rooftops, warehouses, and Wal-Marts. Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms cover huge swaths of land to supply utilities with clean power. Entrepreneurs have also invested in solar thermal farms, where the sun's heat turns liquid into steam to drive a turbine.

Even with state-of-the-art manufacturing methods, PV solar power is still on average twice as expensive to produce as electricity generated by a coal-fired plant. But prices are finally coming down even as efficiency goes up, and some experts think the cost of solar will rival grid power in the next two to three years. In the meantime, government subsidies are bridging the cost gap in many markets. Also, as more nations pass carbon cap-and-trade laws - in the U.S. both Senators McCain and Obama support the idea - natural gas and coal will become more expensive, which should close the gap further. Finally, the industry has achieved scale. These are not backyard enterprises - they pull in hundreds of millions in revenue annually and do business everywhere on the planet. That they all are pursuing economies of scale should help drive down the cost of solar even further.

Although the industry is able to sell solar cells and modules today as fast as it can make them, analysts predict capacity will almost double in 2009. That has caused some analysts to raise the specter of over-supply and the possibility of a bloody price war among manufacturers. "It's going to trigger a shakeout," says Ted Sullivan, a senior analyst with Lux. "The weakest players will either get acquired or fail."

While industry players mostly disagree with Sullivan on the inevitability of aggressive price wars, they do see an upcoming shift in the industry. "I think we all agree that markets tend to consolidate during times like these," says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower, a maker of solar-power-generating systems. "This is one of those periods in an industry where a handful of big players emerge."

Of the 14 pure-play public solar companies, experts expect at least three to stand out from the crowd. The winners possess differentiated technology, enough cash to survive, and the financial heft to enter the entire solar food chain, from producing modules to selling power like any other utility. While the industry is likely to remain volatile for some time to come, long-term investors might want to consider stocks of these three companies, whose values now look attractive.

First Solar
Among the favorites of stock analysts is First Solar (FSLR). Founded in 1999 and originally backed by the investing arm of the Walton (Wal-Mart) family, First Solar went public in 2006, right at the beginning of a wave of solar IPOs. In the coming shakeout First Solar should thrive, because with its cutting-edge thin-film technology it is able to produce solar modules more cheaply per watt than its competitors. Traditional crystalline-silicon photovoltaic systems sandwich wafers of silicon between glass, resulting in those boxy panels you see on rooftops. By contrast, First Solar's thin-film technology applies a fine layer of material directly to a glass substrate. The process is faster, and because it requires just a fraction of the expensive silicon used in traditional PVs, it's vastly cheaper. First Solar, which operates factories in Ohio, Malaysia, and Germany, can produce systems for $1.14 per watt of power, compared with $2.90 per watt for traditional crystalline-silicon solar cells. With subsidies, First Solar's products can compete in many parts of the world with a natural gas or coal-fired power plant.

Run by managers who are fanatics about meeting goals and avoiding unnecessary costs, First Solar routinely blows away both its own and the Street's targets. Its manufacturing team is legendary, bringing online factories that exceed expectations. "They come in at over 100% of projected capacity," says Jenny Chase, a senior analyst with New Energy Finance. "No one else does that."

The shares of this highflying Tempe, Ariz., company peaked at $317 in May and now are trading at $144. Analysts expect sales this year to reach $1.2 billion, up 138% from 2007, and to top $2.1 billion next year, with earnings per share more than doubling. First Solar also sits on $633 million in cash. While the stock is pricey with a current P/E of 50 and a forward P/E of 21, the company's growth prospects and strong balance sheet make it look like a buy.

SunPower
While First Solar has laid claim to the lowest price per watt for its modules, SunPower (SPWRA) claims the most efficient. Inch for inch, its modules produce the most electricity. While SunPower's systems are expensive, you need fewer of them, which makes them perfect for homes and businesses where space is tight. The company, based in San Jose, was spun out of Cypress Semiconductor in 2005 and now sports a $4.2 billion market cap - about eight times the size of its former parent. It has carved out a place in the solar industry similar to Apple's in the computer world, producing well-designed, aesthetically pleasing modules. SunPower has distinguished itself in the market as one of the highest-quality makers of modules. "Brand actually does matter in this industry," New Energy's Chase says, "and SunPower has it."

Besides making and installing systems, SunPower has started on a new track. Much like a utility, it has decided to sell the power its modules produce directly to customers. But that new strategy hasn't kept the stock from getting hammered. Over the past year, SunPower stock fell from a 52-week high of $164 to a low of $37 in early October. Werner is shocked by the drubbing his stock has taken. "The markets are valuing growth companies as if they were lead-pencil companies," he says. "This will take care of itself in time, and we are obviously in a really, really unique time."

Now trading at around $54, with a current P/E of 60 and a forward P/E of 12, this stock, too, looks like a buy. Analysts expect SunPower's sales this year to hit $1.4 billion, up 80% from 2007, and to rise to $2 billion in 2009. Earnings per share are expected to rise from $2.33 in 2008 to $3.55 in 2009, a 52% increase.

Suntech Power
While SunPower is obsessed with quality, what solarmaker Suntech Power (STP) offers is scale. Based in Wuxi, China, the company is the world's largest manufacturer of solar PV modules and has set in place an aggressive plan to stay on top, says Roger Efird, who runs Suntech's business in the Americas. With a cash hoard of $752 million, access to cheap local labor, and deep-pocketed Chinese lenders backing it up, the company has been able to take advantage of the fast-growing market. Efird, who is also chairman of the U.S. Solar Energy Industry Association, believes the risk of price declines in solar modules next year will be offset by continued thirst for new sources of clean energy in both China and the U.S.

Wedged in by people filling Suntech's booth at the San Diego solar conference, Efird looks around the hall. "There's not a person in this room who has a module for sale between now and the end of the year. It's all sold out," he says. "What people forget is that there are hundreds upon hundreds of solar projects, in the U.S. in particular, sitting on the shelf waiting for the right economic moment." Efird believes that moment is coming next year.

To hedge its bets, Suntech, like its competitor SunPower, is moving up the food chain, selling power directly to commercial customers. That's not Suntech's only hedge. The company has invested tens of millions to lock in the price of silicon over the next five to ten years, betting that demand will rise and prices eventually will trend up. Competing manufacturers without Suntech's resources will have to face the vagaries of the spot market for silicon in years to come. Of course, if silicon prices drop - new capacity is coming onstream - the move could prove a costly mistake for Suntech.

Suntech's share price has fallen from a 52-week high of $90 in January to $18 in mid-October. It looks cheap, with a current P/E of 17 and a forward P/E of 9. This year's sales, stemming mostly from its business in Asia, are estimated to clock in at $2.1 billion, up 62% over 2007, rising to $3.2 billion in 2009, as it pushes hard in the U.S. Earnings per share are projected to go from $1.67 this year to $2.50 next.

The shares of even the best solar companies have fallen on hard times. Yet for anyone who believes that the world is destined to move away from a carbon-based economy, investing in this nascent industry, at least in the long term, may very well be a move you won't regret.

email tips - from TheStreet.com

Small Business Tips of the Week

Nine Tips for Email Marketing Design
Entrepreneur.com
06/11/08 - 11:00 AM EDT
Written by Gail Goodman

The good news about email marketing is you don't have to be a design expert to create great-looking campaigns. Most email marketing service providers offer pre-designed templates you can choose from (that are created by professional designers). But even with templates, you still have some design decisions to make: What colors and fonts to use, what size to make the fonts, and how much text you should include, to name a few. Follow these nine tips and you'll create emails that not only look great, but also get great results.

Tip 1: Include your logo in the same location each time.

Build your brand with every marketing email you send. One way to do this is to include your logo in all of your email communications. The best practice is to include it in the same location each time you send out an email. It may be in the header or somewhere else in the email (preferably above the point where a reader would have to scroll down to see it, but don't take up the whole preview screen).

Tip 2: Keep the preview pane in mind.

A recent study by Marketing Sherpa found that 70% of recipients that have the capability to read email through a preview pane do. What this means is your subscribers may only see a portion of your email before deciding to open it and look at it in its entirety. Make sure your logo, as well as some enticing information about the email contents can be seen in the preview pane.

Tip 3: Use color for emphasis

While it might be tempting to use a lot of colors in your email campaigns, resist. When deciding which colors to use, start with your company's colors. All of your emails should represent your visual brand, and a key component of that is using your colors consistently.

Colors outside your brand should be saved for emphasis. Use it to call attention to something that is important in the email -- to make it really stand out to the reader.

One of our designers here at Constant Contact likes to use a cooking metaphor when he talks about using color. He makes the point that just because you have every spice on your rack doesn't mean you use each one. You use a little bit here and there to add a little flavor. It's similar with design; you want to use colors to add flavor.

Tip 4: Limit the number of fonts you use.

A good rule of thumb is to use a max of two fonts in your marketing emails. You may use one for the body and another for the headlines and subtitles. Use standard fonts like Arial, Times New Roman or Verdana for the greatest readability. If you use a less common font that not all the people on your list have, their computer will make a substitution that can change the format of your email.

Tip 5: Make your point clearly and quickly.

When it comes to writing the copy for your email, get to the point quickly. The reality is that most people scan. They don't give you much longer than a second to capture their attention. If it takes much longer than that for them to engage, you may lose them. With every moment, a reader is determining if he or she will keep reading or abandon your email.

In the case of newsletters, your copy will be longer than with a promotional email, but the concept of getting to the point still applies. I've found that most first drafts of articles can be chopped down to as much as half their original word count while still conveying the article's message.

Tip 6: Pick photos that support your message.

Including images in an email campaign can make it more attractive and help you communicate your message. (A picture is worth a thousand words.) But this isn't true of any image. If there is too much going on in your photo or if it's poor quality, it can distract the reader and reflect poorly on your business.

When choosing an image for your campaign, look for something that is simple and easy to focus on and relates directly to your content. You don't want readers to look at an image and question what it has to do with your message. If the image doesn't support your message, it will only take away from what you're trying to communicate.

Tip 7: Don't embed your text in an image.

Many of the programs people use to receive and read email have images turned off by default. To ensure that people with this default setting get your message, include text in your email that is not embedded in an image.

Tip 8: Remember that white space is your friend.

What is white space? It's a resting place for the reader's eyes. Without it, your reader will not know where to look. Make sure that you have plenty of room between headlines, articles and any other content you've included in your email.

Tip 9: Keep it simple.

In design, less is more. Emails that are uncluttered visually and have a clear message get a better response. The goal of your email is to get your readers to take some kind of action. You want them to visit your Web site, buy now, get more information, etc. A well-designed email will get your readers to pay attention and make it easy for them to take the action you desire.


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