How Healthy are the US Banks? (Zacks)

Analyst Interviews: U.S. Banks Stock Update

By Zacks Investment Research on May 19, 2010

Although a major recovery in the asset markets has been witnessed in recent quarters, the outlook for the U.S. banking industry still remains in question due to several negatives, including asset-quality troubles, drawbacks of new regulations and the continuation of both residential and commercial real estate loan defaults.

After enduring extraordinary shocks in 2008, the U.S. banks entered an exceptional state of turmoil in 2009. Starting as a credit issue in the subprime segment of the mortgage market, the situation affected about the entire financial services industry, in all corners of the globe. In other words, the financial crisis ultimately morphed into a massive economic crisis, which has had major ramifications across the whole world.

Although the banking industry is dealing with liquidity and confidence challenges in 2010, it is now comparatively stable, with financial support from the U.S. government. The government had taken several steps, including programs offering capital injections and debt guarantees, to stabilize the financial system.

We believe that the worst of the credit crisis is now behind us. After more than a year of initiating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a lot has improved with respect to the economic crisis.

But the banking system is not yet out of the woods, as there are persistent problems that need to be addressed by the government before shifting the strategy to growth. We believe that the U.S. economy will regain its growth momentum once these issues are resolved.

While the bigger banks benefited greatly from the various programs launched by the government, many smaller banks are still in a very weak financial state, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) list of problem banks continues to grow.

Bank Failures Continue

Despite the government’s strong efforts, we continue to see bank failures. Tumbling home prices, soaring loan defaults and a high unemployment rate continue to take their toll on small banks. As the industry tolerates bad loans made during the credit explosion, the trouble in the banking system goes even deeper, increasing the possibility of more bank failures.

Furthermore, government efforts have not succeeded in restoring the lending activity at the banks. Lower lending will continue to hurt margins and the overall economy, though the low interest rate environment should be beneficial to banks with a liability-sensitive balance sheet.

Out of the $247 billion given to the banks, more than half has come back from the healthy banks who have repaid their TARP funds in full. Banks have also paid about $11 billion in interest and dividends. Also, taxpayers have received decent returns on many of its financial-sector investments. Repayments under the TARP have generated a 17% annualized return from stock-warrant repurchases and $12 billion in dividend payments from dozens of banks.

Many of the major banks that have already repaid the bailout money include JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 39.56 +0.54 +1.38%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 138.90 +1.54 +1.12%), Morgan Stanley (MS: 26.98 +0.25 +0.94%), BB&T (BBT: 32.44 -0.10 -0.31%), US Bancorp (USB: 24.37 +0.01 +0.04%), Bank of America (BAC: 16.2894 +0.3394 +2.13%), Wells Fargo (WFC: 30.17 -0.42 -1.37%) and Citigroup (C: 3.82 +0.09 +2.41%).

Following the U.S. Treasury’s appeal to the world banking system to maintain stronger capital and liquidity standards by the end of 2010 to prevent a re-run of the global financial crisis, 15 large banks that control the majority of derivative trading worldwide have committed themselves to maintaining greater transparency in the $600 trillion market, which needs stricter oversight in the interest of the global financial system.

Moreover, in mid-January 2010, the Obama Administration proposed a tax on about 50 of the nation’s largest financial firms in order to recover the losses incurred by the government on its $700 billion bailout program. On approval of Congress, the tax, which the White House calls a “financial crisis responsibility fee,” would force the banks to reportedly pay the federal government about $90 billion over 10 years.

Targeting banks to recover the shortfall in bailout money can be considered justified, as they are the major beneficiaries of the taxpayers’ largesse. Most of the bailout loan was provided to financial institutions, as they form the backbone of the economy and were the primary victims of the crisis.

If the economic recovery tails off, high-risk loan defaults could re-emerge. About $500 billion in commercial real estate loans would be due annually over the next few years.

Above all, there are lingering concerns related to the banking industry as well as the economy. Continued asset-quality troubles are expected to force many banks to record substantial additional provisions at least through the end of 2010. This will be a drag on the profitability of many banks for extended periods, which will further stretch their capital levels.

While the economy is in a recovery phase, a lot remains to be done. The Treasury continues to hold huge direct investments in institutions like American International Group (AIG: 37.4205 -0.3595 -0.95%), Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.9394 -0.0406 -4.14%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.265 -0.085 -6.30%).

Additionally, rating agency Standard & Poor’s said in March 2010 that it is maintaining its negative outlook for the U.S. banking industry based on FDIC’s industry financial performance data as of the end of 2009. The agency expects credit losses in the loan books of banks to be on the upside. Further, the agency warned that the pressure on ratings has not yet fully eased.

In conclusion, we expect loan losses on commercial real estate portfolio to remain high for banks that hold large amounts of high-risk loans. Also, as a result of a rise in charge-offs, the levels of reserve coverage have fallen over the past quarters and the banks will have to make higher provisions at least in the near term, affecting their profitability. We think that the financial crisis is far from over, and it will be awhile before we can write the end to this crisis story.

OPPORTUNITIES

The Treasury’s requirement of focusing on banking institutions towards higher-quality capital will help banks absorb big losses. Though this would somewhat limit the profitability of banks, a proper implementation would bring stability to the overall sector and hopefully address bank failures.

Specific banks that we like with a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) include Central Valley Community Bancorp (CVCY: 6.21 -0.09 -1.43%), Financial Institutions Inc. (FISI: 17.57 -0.08 -0.45%), S&T Bancorp Inc. (STBA: 22.56 -0.07 -0.31%), Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (OZRK: 37.16 +0.25 +0.68%), First Community Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCBC), Republic Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:RBCAA) and Old National Bancorp. (NYSE:ONB).

There are currently a number of stocks in the U.S. banking universe with a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) including Mainsource Financial Group (NASDAQ:MSFG), Bancorp Rhode Island, Inc. (NASDAQ:BARI), MBT Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:MBTF), Mercantile Bank Corp. (NASDAQ:MBWM), MidWest One Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MOFG), Tower Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:TOFC), BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ:BANF), Southwest Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:OKSB), Viewpoint Financial Group (NASDAQ:VPFG), Center Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:CLFC), North Valley Bancorp (NASDAQ:NOVB), Summit State Bank (NASDAQ:SSBI), Washington Banking Co. (NASDAQ:WBCO), Washington Trust Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:WASH), Lakeland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:LBAI), Fidelity Southern Corporation (NASDAQ:LION) and Cardinal Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:CFNL).

We favor Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:CBSH) in this space since this company is one of the few names that did not report losses even during the current financial crisis. We believe that Commerce is one of the best-capitalized banks in the industry and will generate positive earnings throughout the credit cycle. While the bank had a decent growth in deposits in the most recent quarter, trends in its credit metrics were negative.

WEAKNESSES

The financial system is going through massive de-leveraging, and banks in particular have lowered leverage. The implication for banks is that the profitability metrics (like returns on equity and return on assets) will be lower than in recent years.

Furthermore, the current crisis has dramatically accelerated the consolidation trend in the industry. As a result, failure of a large financial institution will be a major concern in the upcoming quarters as weaker entities are being absorbed by the larger ones.

We think banks with high exposure to housing and Commercial Real Estate loans, like Wilmington Trust Corporation (NYSE:WL), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) and Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ:ZION), will remain under pressure.

Also, there are currently a number of stocks with a Zacks #5 Rank (Strong Sell) including Nara Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:NARA), Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR), Bryn Mawr Bank Corp. (NASDAQ:BMTC), Horizon Bancorp (NASDAQ:HBNC), Hudson Valley Holding Corp. (HUVL), Legacy Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:LEGC), VIST Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:VIST), Metrocorp Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:MCBI), Firstbank Corporation (NASDAQ:FBMI) and First Financial Bancorp (NASDAQ:FFBC).

Stocks - some realistic expectations (WSJ Opinion Page)

MARCH 30, 2009

How Long Until Stocks Bounce Back?
Even the best-case scenarios will require years.

By PETER J. TANOUS
Investors have breathed a world-wide sigh of relief in the waning weeks of March as equity markets have shown signs of upward vigor. The question now being bruited around the financial centers of the world is: Have we hit bottom?

No one really knows, but that is likely the wrong question. More important to investors than the date we hit bottom is how long the recovery will take. How long will it take for investors to recoup the losses they suffered since October 2007, when the S&P 500 index reached a record high of 1565? Here's a clue: It will take longer than you think. Let me explain.

Let's assume that we have already seen the market bottom and that it occurred on March 9, 2009, when the S&P 500 sank to 676. A return to the lofty level of 1565 reached 18 months earlier requires a stock market gain of 131%. How much time might that take? What if it took five years? I can hear the cries already: "Five years? To recoup the losses we sustained in only 18 months? That's terrible!"

We should be so lucky. You see, if we were to get back to the old high in five years, that would suggest an annual return of over 18% for that five year period. There are few periods in stock market history when the market rose 18% for five years. The last such period was in the late 1990s at the tail end of the Internet boom, which was followed by three years of consecutive stock market declines in 2000, 2001 and 2002. Given the history, a five-year recovery period, far from being terrible, is probably wishful thinking.

More realistically, what if, starting now, we began a munificent period of rising stock prices over a multiyear period of, say, 11% a year? If that happened, it would take eight years to get back to the October 2007 highs. To put all this in historical perspective, the average annual return for the S&P 500 over the past 83 years, since 1926, has been 9.7%. If the market rose at that historic rate, it would take more than nine years to get back to the October 2007 highs.

What is the lesson from these sobering statistics? The recovery in stock prices is likely to take much longer than we had hoped, and investors should taper their expectations accordingly. Raising the risk level of your investments to accelerate gains will set you up for even greater losses if your risky investments don't work out. Instead, allocate your assets wisely and be mindful of the risks in the different asset classes you choose.

The good news is that stocks will recover. It just may take longer than we expect.

Mr. Tanous is president and CEO of Lynx Investment Advisory LLC in Washington, D.C. He is the author of many books including "The End of Prosperity: How Higher Taxes Will Doom the Economy -- If We Let It Happen" (Threshold Editions, 2008), co-authored with Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore.

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