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Showing posts with label growth stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth stocks. Show all posts

Electric Cars - Batteries - Lithium ; what stocks to buy (Morningstar)

Electric Car Demand Juices Lithium's Prospects
By David Wang | 11-27-15 | 06:00 AM | Email Article

We recently initiated coverage of lithium producers  Albemarle (ALB) Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and  FMC (FMC). Lithium is a great way to gain exposure to the electric car market, providing investors with a play on the high-growth industry. Lithium has one of the best growth profiles across all the commodities that we cover. We expect at least high-single-digit annual demand growth; this requires that electric car sales achieve a market share of just 1% by the end of the decade, up from approximately 0.25% in 2014. Narrow-moat Albemarle is our preferred way to play the lithium market, since it has the most upside to growing volume. Its shares currently trade at a discount to our fair value estimate. We think SQM and FMC are fairly valued at their current share prices.

Although lithium volume growth should be strong, we are less optimistic about pricing. Lithium producers have increased capacity in anticipation of healthy demand growth. As a result of this plentiful capacity, we expect lithium carbonate prices to fall from $5,700 per metric ton in the first half of 2015 to real midcycle prices of $5,500 per metric ton, based on our estimate of the marginal cost production. Still, prices remain elevated compared with recent years as a result of strong demand growth.

Lithium is produced from either lower-cost evaporation of brine or higher-cost mining of spodumene minerals. Albemarle and SQM have cost advantages in lithium production because of their lucrative brine assets in the Salar de Atacama in Chile. Two factors make the Salar de Atacama the lowest-cost source of lithium in the world: dry conditions and high lithium concentration. This high concentration makes Albemarle and SQM the lowest-cost lithium producers, even among brine-based producers.

Albemarle makes up 35% of global lithium supply and possesses a narrow economic moat due in part to its advantaged brine assets in Chile. Given this, combined with its stake in Talison, a higher-cost Australian operation that produces lithium from spodumene mining, Albemarle has the best volume growth prospects among major lithium players. We expect the company to ramp up production and capture roughly half of incremental lithium demand through the end of the decade. Short-term headwinds in its refining catalyst business have driven down the share price this year, as integrated oil companies delay the replacement of clean fuel catalysts used to meet regulatory requirements. However, we expect these issues will abate as replacement is eventually needed. After a weak 2015, we should see profit growth from rising high-margin lithium production.

With 22% of supply, SQM also possesses a cost advantage in lithium, thanks to its Chilean assets. We do not award the company an economic moat, however, because it is possible that the company may lose its mining rights in a conflict with the Chilean government. Primarily as a result of this issue, we assign a Poor stewardship rating and very high uncertainty rating to SQM. The company is a low-cost producer of specialty fertilizer and iodine, but we expect realized prices to decline for those businesses.

Narrow-moat FMC is a higher-cost lithium producer and makes up 13% of supply. The company produces lithium from its salt brine operations in Argentina, which have experienced rampant inflation without commensurate currency depreciation. The recent election of a center-right party to power bodes well for the likelihood of peso devaluation, which would make FMC more cost-competitive against its peers. Lithium makes up a far smaller portion of the company's profits relative to its larger crop chemical division. The intangible assets associated with the crop chemical business form the basis of FMC's narrow economic moat. The shares have traded down significantly this year as a result of weakness in Brazil, FMC's primary end market. We expect the company's agricultural profits to improve, with additional upside, as Brazil is one of the few places with meaningful growth potential in arable land.
David Wang is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

Best Performing Actively Managed ETFs (investors business daily)

November 23, 2015

These 5 Best ETFs Are Leaving Indexes In The Dust

By APARNA NARAYANAN
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
 View Enlarged Image
Actively managed ETFs held a total $21.84 billion in assets through October, up nearly 30% from the end of 2014. While active exchange-traded funds are a speck in the roughly $2 trillion ETF landscape, they're growing fast.
The first active ETF debuted in 2008. More than half are less than 2 years old.
These ETF investment strategies often seek to outperform their benchmark indexes. Like most mutual funds, active ETFs have fund managers who decide which securities to include in the portfolio.
Active ETFs usually "don't take off like lightning" but are seeing steady and significant growth nonetheless, says Noah Hamman, CEO of AdvisorShares, an active ETF sponsor that recently published an industry landscape report.
"When performance is there, people are willing to use them in a portfolio," Hamman said.
Here are five winners in 2015:

• ARK Web x.0 (ARCA: ARKW) has gained 15% year to date through Friday vs. 7% for the tech fund category.
The ETF invests in innovative companies disrupting traditional business models. It focuses on businesses benefiting from the shift from hardware and software toward cloud computing, Big Data, wearable technology, social media and the Internet of Things.
ARKW holds 38 stocks. The top five include AthenaHealth (NASDAQ: ATHN), LinkedIn(NYSE: LNKD), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Red Hat(NYSE: RHT).
However, the ETF's 0.95% expense ratio is higher than most indexed peers, and assets and trading volume are relatively meager.

• SPDR MFS Systematic Growth Equity (ARCA: SYG) has risen 9.4% year to date vs. 6.1% for the large growth fund category.
The ETF screens for stocks based on fundamental and quantitative factors. Top holdings out of 50 include Amazon, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and biotech giant Gilead Sciences(NASDAQ: GILD).
SYG's 0.6% expense ratio is three times that of its passive peer, iShares Russell 1000Growth (ARCA: IWF). SYG holds $9.4 million in assets.

• Columbia Large Cap Growth (ARCA: RPX) is another solid choice for successful investing with actively managed ETF strategies. Its 9.9% gain this year —and 22% average annual the past three years — have beaten the large-growth category.

• IShares Enhanced International Small-Cap (ARCA: IEIS) is outpacing its segment so far in 2015. IEIS is up 7.9% in 2015 vs. 3.1% for the foreign small/mid-value fund category.

• AdvisorShares WCM/BNY Focused Growth ADR (ARCA: AADR) is ahead too.
AADR is up 6.3% vs. 2.7% for the foreign large-growth category. It has also outperformed over three- and five-year periods of time.
The ETF owns 31 stocks, including top holding Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM). The concentrated portfolio holds only the fund managers' best stock investing ideas, Hamman said. Their "stock selection really has added value," he added.
IEIS has a 0.49% expense ratio, with AADR at 1.27%.

• AdvisorShares Gartman Gold Euro (ARCA: GEUR) is up 1.9% year to date vs. a 21.3% loss for the precious metals commodity fund category and a 9.3% loss for SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA: GLD).
GEUR uses a somewhat complex investing method. It invests in gold using euros, going long on gold futures and short on euro futures. That strategy has worked in a rising dollar environment.
"Now investors can diversify themselves," Hamman said. "They don't have to have just GLD. They can pair this up and balance that exposure a bit."
GEUR has a 0.65% expense ratio vs. 0.40% for GLD.

Should You Invest In Your Twenties (from Quora.com)


Jay BazzinottiJay BazzinottiNo one is perfect... but I am as close as you can get without a prescription ;-) I am a frustrated writer and storyteller. I love the quote from Edward Everett Hale, the famous Boston gadfly. He said "I am but one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something and I will not let what I cannot do stop me from doing what I can do.".
Here's a thing that my financial adviser told me that I have never forgotten and tell every young person I can:

When it comes to saving for the future or for retirement, all of the money you earn in interest is made in the early years of your life, not the final ones, and you can never make up for that later.

You have an amazing advantage at your age -- time to take advantage of the compounding of interest. DON'T BLOW IT.

You can make a small sacrifice and still enjoy your life today. By making small sacrifices you can save 500 dollars a month. In the meantime you should be contributing to your IRA and 401K or other responsible retirement vehicle. You will still have money to blow on toys and if you do nothing else, save that 500 dollars a month. Save it in a Vanguard no-load S&P index fund and save it whether the market goes up or the market goes down. The beauty of the Vanguard S&P fund is that over the kind of time you are speaking of, nothing has beaten it as an investment. It does not require much, if any balancing. (when you turn 50 convert half the funds to S&P index bond funds) You don't have to watch it constantly. Just keep that money flowing into it every single month and you will have almost a million dollars saved in addition to any other retirement vehicle by the time you are 65. You should review the right funds with your accountant but look at VLGSX, VTMSX and VTTHX if you are too lazy and just want to get on with it. You will not lose over time, unless the world comes to an end or the US collapses. 

You WILL get old one day and when you do you will need money -- lots of money. And 40 years from now the world is going to be a MUCH harsher place than it is now. You really need to prepare for that. 

If you want, look up the "Rule of 72" and see how compounding works for you.If there was nothing else I could tell you, it would be these things. Don't wait -- time is not your friend. You will forget the silk shirt you buy today, but you will never forget being forced to eat dog food when you are 65. At 8 percent interest, which is what Vanguard funds I selected pay out over 20 years, the doubling period is 9 years, therefore, that 6000 dollars you invest at 21 would double 5 times by the time you are 65 to $192,000. If you wait til you are 30 to start putting it away you will lose $96,000. Obviously YMMV because the market goes up and down, but it's A LOT of money. 

EVERY SINGLE THING YOU DO TODAY IS PREPARING YOU FOR THE LIFE YOU WILL LIVE TOMORROW.

LED Companies with Government Funding (Popular Mechanics)

Here's how the U.S. Department of Energy is investing in a future illuminated by light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs).

17 Projects Shaping the Future of LED Lights

High Return Junk Stocks - What's Next (Hulbert in NYT)

December 6, 2009
Strategies
When the Performance Looks a Little Too Good
By MARK HULBERT

SANMINA-SCI, the supplier of electronics services, is loaded with debt and in each of the last eightyears has lost money. Its shares have risen more than 600 percent since the stock market rally began on March 9.

Wal-Mart Stores, the discount retailer, has lots of cash on its balance sheet, has very little debt and has consistently turned a profit. Since March 9, its shares have gained just 14 percent.

The disparate treatment meted out to these two companies by the stock market highlights an unusual and, in some ways, worrisome phenomenon: to an extent not seen in decades, shares of companies with weak balance sheets have been soaring, generally outperforming firms with stronger fundamentals.

In part, this is a consequence of the terrible pummeling given to riskier assets of all kinds during the worst months of the financial crisis. Shares of companies that were deemed to be weakest were hit the hardest. It’s only natural that they would bounce back the most at the first hint that financial disaster had been averted.

But the performance gap between the weak and the strong has rarely been as pronounced as it has been since March’s market lows. The extreme outperformance of the more speculative stocks could make them vulnerable to another market shock.
Ford Equity Research, an independent research firm based in San Diego, rates stocks’ financial quality based on a number of factors, including a company’s size, debt level, earnings history and industry stability. All told, Ford Equity follows more than 4,000 stocks. Those in the bottom fifth of its ratings — including Sanmina-SCI — produced an average stock market return of 152 percent from the beginning of March to the end of November, according to an analysis conducted for The New York Times.

The stocks in the highest quintile for quality — including Wal-Mart — produced an average gain of 66 percent over the same period, or roughly 85 percentage points less. That is the biggest disparity over the first nine months of any bull market since 1970, which is the first year for which Ford Equity has quality ratings.

Historical comparisons to bull markets prior to 1970 must rely on a proxy for financial quality, and perhaps the best available is market capitalization. Not all large-cap companies are financially healthy, of course, and not all small caps are weak. But, historically, as a group, the difference between the large- and small-cap sectors has proved to be roughly correlated with the disparity between high- and low-quality stocks.

Since the March lows, for example, according to Ford Equity, the 20 percent of stocks with smallest market capitalizations have on average outperformed the largest 20 percent by 72 percentage points — only slightly less than the 85-point disparity between the lowest- and highest-quality issues.

By contrast, in the first nine months of all bull markets since 1926, the average outperformance of the small-cap sector was just 21 percentage points, or less than one-third as much as the disparity over the last nine months, according to calculations by The Hulbert Financial Digest.

Only once since 1926 have the first nine months of a bull market produced a gap greater than this year’s. That was in the bull market that began in February 1933, in the middle of the Great Depression, when small caps outperformed large caps by an incredible 196 percentage points.

How can we explain the current extreme performance disparity? The federal government’s stimulus program is the main cause, in the view of Jeremy Grantham, the chief investment strategist at GMO, a money-management firm based in Boston. Mr. Grantham said in an interview that by temporarily reducing the danger of incurring risk, the government had effectively encouraged huge amounts of risk-taking in financial markets. “The sizable disparity of junk over quality should not have come as a big surprise,” he said, “given how massive the government’s stimulus has been.”

As an unintended consequence, Mr. Grantham said, high-quality stocks today are about as cheap as they have ever been relative to shares of firms with weaker finances.

“It’s almost a certain bet that high-quality blue chips will outperform lower-quality stocks over the longer term,” he said.

Mark Hulbert is editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest, a service of MarketWatch. E-mail: strategy@nytimes.com.

Growing Market for LEDs (WSJ, Japan Times)

NOVEMBER 5, 2009, 4:12 P.M. ET
Cree To Light Up 650 Wal-Mart Stores' Aisles With LEDs

By Sari Krieger
Of DOW JONES CLEAN TECHNOLOGY INSIGHT
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Attention Wal-Mart shoppers: Cree Inc. light-emitting diodes will soon be lighting up the retail giant's stores in various aisles.

Durham, N.C.-based Cree said Wednesday that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) signed a deal with the company to buy two kinds of its LED lights, which the retailer will install in 650 of its stores in the first year. Although the companies wouldn't disclose the value of this deal for Cree, or exactly how many lights Wal-Mart bought, this move has larger implications for the LED lighting industry and Cree.

"I think it's an important milestone in what we've been calling the LED lighting revolution," said Cree Chief Executive Chuck Swoboda in an interview with Clean Technology Insight. "It demonstrates that LED lighting really works in commercial lighting applications."

Swoboda called this deal an "initial roll out," but he wouldn't say whether Wal-Mart has expressed interest in buying more LED lights, otherwise known as solid-state lighting.

Wal-Mart didn't return a call requesting comment.

The adoption of LED technology, and Cree's products specifically, by the retail giant could soon bring other retailers knocking at their door. Swoboda said that once some municipalities started using outdoor LED lighting, others soon followed suit. The retail arena should be similar, Swoboda said he hopes, because he thinks that once some companies try LED lights and can show some positive results, others will be less gun-shy about switching to the technology.

Wal-Mart bought Cree's LRP-38s, a spot light, to illuminate some of its products. This light lasts 50,000 hours, consumes 82% less energy than the 70-watt ceramic metal-halide bulbs it replaces and can last more than five years when kept on all the time. These lights also make products displayed under them look more vivid and they don't radiate heat down, helping delay product spoilage, as the company demonstrated at the Lightfair International Convention in May, held in New York. Cree rolled out the LRP-38 at the convention.

The deal also includes use of Cree's LR6 recessed can lights in some Wal-Mart new construction, but the companies wouldn't give further details on how many or where they will be used. The LR6 has similar specifications to the LRP-38, but it is a more general-purpose light, rather than a spot light.

Theo O'Neill, an analyst with Kaufman Bros. LP, said in an interview that this initial roll out brings Cree about $4 million to $8 million in revenue.

"It's obviously a plus for Cree," O'Neill said. "Plus it will help with industrial expansion of this business. There are five billion light bulbs in the U.S. and they are all going to convert to solid-state lights eventually. Big, big business."

O'Neill has a "hold" rating on the stock and a $36, 12-month price target. He doesn't own shares of the company and Kaufman Bros. makes a market in shares of Cree.

Jed Dorsheimer, an analyst with Canaccord Adams Inc., who has been consistently bearish on Cree's stock, acknowledged the significance of the deal. He doesn't own shares of Cree and Canaccord Adams conducts no business for Cree. He has a $45 price target and a "hold" rating on shares of Cree.

"It's also great to see Wal-Mart transition to solid-state lighting, as they did with refrigeration," Dorsheimer said. "Typically, they lead the market by one to two years."

Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart has already installed LED lights in its refrigerator and freezer cases and is considering using LED parking lot lights, it said recently.

Shares of Cree climbed Wednesday $1.92, or 4.5%, to $44.70 on Nasdaq. Shares of Wal-Mart increased 89 cents, or 1%, to $51.27 on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight covers news about public and private clean-technology and alternative-energy companies.)

-By Sari Krieger, Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight; 212-416-2016; sari.krieger@dowjones.com



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BUSINESS SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
Lighting Firm to Unveil LED Bulb
By SARI KRIEGER

Lemnis Lighting Inc. plans to announce this week the full-scale release in the U.S. market of a light-emitting diode bulb, its entry in the race to replace 60-watt incandescent lights.

As consumers look to cut down on energy use and the federal government's 2012 ban on incandescent bulbs approaches, sales of compact fluorescent lights have increased. These spiral-shaped lights use much less energy than traditional incandescent lights, which waste most of the energy they draw. CFLs also last seven to 10 times longer than incandescents.

But light-emitting diodes, or LEDs, promise a next generation of lights that are even more efficient, last longer, are more easily dimmable and, unlike CFLs, don't contain mercury.

Lemnis Lighting says its Pharox light looks like a traditional incandescent light, with a metal piece wrapped around the midsection of the light that acts as a heat-sink, keeping the LEDs cool and ensuring a long life of 35,000 hours, or about 20 years of normal household use. The bulbs are pricey, though, costing about $40 each.

Its light output looks like what consumers expect from a soft white incandescent light, as opposed to the harsher, blue-hue from a cool white often seen from fluorescents in offices and hospitals.

The LED light draws 6 watts and puts out the same amount of light as a 40-watt bulb if used right-side-up, such as in a desk lamp, or the equivalent of a 60-watt bulb if used in an upside-down application, due to the nature of LEDs.

Lemnis Lighting is owned by Tendris Holding, a business incubator and operator in sustainable technology and services based in Naarden, Netherlands. Both Lemnis and Tendris are run by Warner Philips, the grandson of Royal Philips NV co-founder Anton Philips. Tendris was formed in 2002 with investments from its insiders and friends and family. Philips is a 10% shareholder in Tendris.

Mr. Philips said in an interview that Lemnis is in talks with major U.S. retailers to sell the Pharox product.

Coming up with a quality, affordable 60-watt replacement light has been a challenge for the LED industry, partially for the reason that LEDs are by nature directional sources of light, as opposed to traditional incandescents that shine in 360 degrees. Top LED companies have been concentrating mostly on directional light sources for commercial and industrial purposes, which make up the bulk of the lighting market.

But the Department of Energy recently established the Bright Tomorrow Lighting Prize, known as the L-prize, which is a competition for companies to come up with the best 60-watt replacement light. The DOE said last week that more than 425 million 60-watt incandescent light bulbs are sold each year in the U.S. alone, representing approximately 50% of the incandescent light bulb market.
So far Amsterdam, Netherlands-based Philips is the only company to submit a product.

The DOE said an LED replacement for this purpose could save 34 terawatt-hours of electricity in one year, enough to power the lights of 17.4 million U.S. households and avoid 5.6 million metric tons of carbon emissions annually.

New York-based Lighting Science Group Corp. has a 40-watt incandescent LED replacement that the company says draws about 7 watts, lasts 40,000 hours and is dimmable.

Thomas Griffiths, an LED industry expert, said in an interview that he sees these three companies as the main competitors at the moment on the LED replacement light scene. Griffiths said the Pharox light looks like a good product, but only time will tell for sure, and he thinks the $39 sticker price is still too high.

Lemnis offers a three-year warranty on the product and the company estimates that an average utility rate of 15 cents per kilowatt-hour, a consumer will achieve a payback within three years.

"I think they're representing where the state of the technology affordably has us right now, but there's still a ways to go before there's a real replacement, and right now Philips is the one to watch because of this announcement," Mr. Griffiths said.

Philips said in a statement that it is confident its product meets the criteria of the L-prize, which calls for a higher level of efficiency, better quality light and more light output than the Lemnis and Lighting Science products.

Although Philips and Lemnis are competitors in this context, Philips acquired an equity stake in Tendris in January.


Mr. Philips said that if Lemnis, with the help of Los Angeles-based partner Digital Light LLC, can reach its goal of selling 10 million lights world-wide within the next 24 months, the price could drop to $30 per bulb.

Griffiths said LED replacement lights need to reach the $15 to $20 range before they'll really be viable.

Tendris' first investment was Oxxio, a supplier of renewable energy, which was sold to Centrica PLC in 2005. That exit gave Tendris at least $39 million more to play around with. The same year, the Dutch National Postcode Lottery also bought a 10% stake in Tendris, giving the company more capital to push its innovations out into the market.

Lemnis, based in Hertogenbosch, Netherlands, was founded in 2005 and is on the verge of profitability, Mr. Philips said in an earlier interview.

Mr. Philips said he isn't looking for an exit with Lemnis, but he said long-term partnerships are always a possibility.

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved


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LED light bulbs fly off shelves as price war starts


By YOSUKE FUKUOKA
Kyodo News
Light-emitting diode lights are selling like hot cakes since prices dropped by half this year.

The surge in demand for the new generation of light bulbs has quickly emptied store shelves, prompting more manufacturers to jump into the market.

LED lights first appeared about a decade ago, but their poor brightness limited them to emergency use. Recent advances in longevity and brightness, however, have turned their fortunes around completely.

Today's LED bulbs cost as little as ¥4,000 but boast a longevity of 40,000 hours, which is about 40 times the life span of incandescent bulbs. They also consume nearly 90 percent less electricity than incandescent bulbs.Compared with fluorescent light bulbs, LED lamps are six times more durable and use at least 40 percent less energy.

Rising public awareness of environmental issues is also boosting LED sales. Countries embarking on "green" initiatives are letting incandescent bulbs fall by the wayside as they move to save energy.

Under the previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party, then Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Akira Amari announced a plan last year to cease production and sales of incandescent bulbs by 2012.

As a result, demand for LED bulbs is outpacing supply.

"We are swamped by orders and just can't keep pace with demand," said Takahisa Uzumaki, senior manager at Toshiba Lighting & Technology Corp., a unit of Toshiba Corp., which developed LED bulbs in 2007.

Sales of LED lights spiked this summer as prices began to come down. At one large store in Tokyo's Akihabara electronics shopping district, "Sold Out" signs were seen at the LED light section.

"Many customers buy LED bulbs just to try them out," said a shop clerk.

In June, Sharp Corp. unveiled a plan to sell LED bulbs for about ¥4,000, less than half the price of products made by other companies. Then more manufacturers, including Panasonic Corp. and NEC Corp., entered the fray.

Competition is heating up because startups founded only five or six years ago have entered the market, since it doesn't take large facilities to mass-produce LED bulbs. That's one of biggest differences of LEDs over incandescent and fluorescent lamps.

As new companies crowd into the LED business, Toshiba Lighting is taking on the challenge by halving its prices. Their bulbs now retail for under ¥5,000.

The Toshiba group is fostering the business and betting it will turn into a hot sector.

"We intend to boost annual LED lighting sales to ¥350 billion by March 2016 from the current ¥20 billion," said Masashi Muromachi, a senior executive at the parent firm.

Sharp aspires to raise annual sales to ¥50 billion in the near future.

With energy conservation a matter of global concern, manufacturers also anticipate brisk demand abroad. Toshiba aims to get overseas sales to account for 30 percent or more of its total LED sales by the year ending in March 2016.

Panasonic is also setting its eyes on foreign markets.

While they are experiencing a sudden burst of popularity, LED bulbs still leave something to be desired technologically. They are more expensive and less bright than their fluorescent counterparts
.

The new type of light bulb can become standard in every household only when manufacturers address and overcome these weaknesses.

The Japan Times: Friday, Oct. 23, 2009
(C) All rights reserved