Renewable Energy, Clean Technology: Water, Solar, Hydrothermal , Wind, Biofuel Companies (Businessweek)

Renewable Energy
May 06

By Aaron Pressman

Clean energy may be the wave of the future, but shares of alternative energy suppliers have taken investors on a wild ride. After getting hit hard by the credit crunch last year, the sector has rallied recently as stimulus plans from the Obama Administration and other governments promise substantial sums for renewable energy projects. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF, which tracks 30 companies around the world, lost 61% last year but has risen 22% over the past three months.


Much of the money will likely go to the industry’s biggest and best-known companies, like Denmark’s wind farm developer Vestas Wind Systems or solar-panel maker First Solar of Tempe, Ariz. There will also be opportunities for smaller players. But “this can be a hairy sector for investing in early-stage companies,” says Edward Guinness, co-manager of the Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund.

While solar and wind projects are now commonplace, geothermal power is less developed. Geothermal systems typically use heat found deep underground to make steam and generate electricity. WaterFurnace Renewable Energy in Fort Wayne, Ind., builds heat pump systems that don’t require deep drilling for homes and businesses. The technology takes advantage of modest but consistent temperatures of about 55 degrees found a few feet underground. Air pumped underground is heated or cooled, which reduces the load on traditional heating and cooling systems and cuts energy bills by about two-thirds. Over time, that offsets installation costs. Revenue is growing 50% a year, and installations haven’t been hurt by the credit crunch, says Jack Robinson, lead manager of the Winslow Green Growth Fund. Guinness’ fund owns Energy Development Corp., a Philippine utility that oversees a dozen geothermal plants and consults on projects for others.

Stocks in the biofuels area have been crushed, not just by difficulty obtaining financing but by overbuilding and rising prices for key ingredients. It isn’t clear which players will survive. Still, the sector could one day generate big profits so it pays to stay up to date, says Guinness. He thinks Maple Energy, a Peruvian oil and gas producer, could become a leading ethanol supplier. Even so, Guinness sold the stock last year after a runup. “When they get their plant up and running, they’ll be the world’s lowest-cost ethanol producer,” he predicts. But he’s waiting to see how the project progresses.

President Barack Obama’s plan to reduce air pollution with a system of tradable pollution rights, known as “cap and trade,” could lead to the development of trading exchanges rivaling those for stocks, bonds, and derivatives. U.K.-based Climate Exchange, a publicly traded company, is the leading player in European pollution-rights trading, but Guinness says it’s too pricey at more than five times expected 2009 revenue (it has yet to show a profit). Unless a national cap-and-trade system becomes a reality in the U.S., the stock is too speculative, he says.

Another player, World Energy Solutions of Worcester, Mass., trails Climate Exchange in revenue. But new Environmental Protection Agency chief Lisa Jackson is familiar with the type of system World Energy has developed, which could bode well for the technology, says Winslow’s Robinson. “They’re a small player but are just becoming profitable and growing at a 50% rate,” Robinson says. Investing in it now, he adds, is like being a venture capitalist

Wind Power Companies (Wall St Journal)

Wind-Power Giant Keeps to Its Course

By PAUL GLADER
Danish wind-power giant Vestas Wind Systems A/S is hoping that a greener U.S. economy will translate into more green in the bank.

Alternative-energy projects have been scaled back in recent months as oil prices have dropped and developers have struggled to secure financing. Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens delayed his $10 billion wind farm in Texas, and solar-power suppliers have laid off workers.

But Vestas is proceeding with a $1 billion plan to build six factories in Colorado and a research center in Houston that could create 4,000 U.S. jobs by the end of next year. Vestas, the world's largest maker of turbines but a distant second to General Electric Co. in the U.S., is laying off workers in Europe and shifting production to the U.S. to better compete with GE. It hired 650 workers at its new blade factory in Windsor, Colo., and is recruiting 500 for a tower factory in Pueblo, Colo.

Vestas's push is part of a scramble among wind-power companies to better position themselves in the U.S., in the hope that President Barack Obama's administration will make good on pledges to back alternative-energy production. The $787 billion economic-stimulus bill enacted in February contains modest new tax breaks.

GE and Germany's Siemens AG, which is No. 3 in the U.S., also are adding production capacity and hiring workers. Siemens on Tuesday plans to announce that it will open a $50 million factory in Kansas to make turbine parts. Companies from Spain and India are also developing a presence.

Vestas Chief Executive Ditlev Engel is particularly bullish on the U.S., calling the corridor from North Dakota to Texas the "Saudi Arabia of wind." He says Vestas is picking up talented engineers and quality specialists being laid off by auto makers and other manufacturers.

SOS Staffing, which is recruiting for Vestas in Colorado, says some new hires are moving from hard-hit manufacturing states like Michigan. And small parts makers that used to supply the auto industry are now retooling their equipment to make the thousands of metal parts that go into a wind turbine.

The American Wind Energy Association estimates the U.S. will add 5,000 megawatts of new capacity this year, down from 8,500 last year. That made the U.S. the global leader in wind-power capacity, surpassing Germany with 25,300 megawatts -- enough to power seven million homes.

Analysts say wind's short-term prospects are better than those for solar energy because it is cheaper and easier to deploy. Gordon L. Johnson II, head of alternative-energy research at Hapoalim Securities in New York, says wind power can generate electricity at 30% to 40% lower cost than solar panels.

Vestas, which posted revenue of €6 billion ($8 billion) last year, claimed 19.8% of the roughly $48 billion global wind-turbine market in 2008, down from 22.8% in 2007, according to BTM Consult APS, of Denmark. GE was second, with 18.6% market share in 2008, up from 16.6% a year earlier. But GE, of Fairfield, Conn., dominates the U.S.; GE's 2008 market share was 43%, compared with Vestas's 13%.

GE's wind-turbine business, acquired from Enron Corp. in 2002, recorded $6 billion in revenue last year. The company's seven plants world-wide can build 3,600 turbines a year and are sold out through 2011, says Victor Abate, vice president of GE's renewable-energy business, though some customers are postponing deliveries. A plant in Pensacola, Fla., will make the company's new 2.5-gigawatt turbines in North America.

Siemens projects that its new factory in Hutchinson, Kan., and an adjacent service facility will employ about 400 workers by the end of 2010. It reports no order cancellations and says it is seeing more bid requests. But Andreas Nauen, president and chief executive of Siemens Wind Power, says "new orders are not coming in as quickly as we expected."

The companies say building facilities in the Midwest's Wind Belt will reduce costs for transporting the equipment -- blades larger than a 747 wingspan and towers as high as a football field is long -- to wind farms going up in the Great Plains states.

Write to Paul Glader at paul.glader@wsj.com

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page B10

Solar Cell Companies (from Fortune Magazine)

Solar stocks for a rainy day
The industry has taken a beating in the market lately, but a few standouts may shine in the long run.

By Michael V. Copeland, senior writer
November 4, 2008: 5:14 AM ET

Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/03/technology/copeland_solar.fortune/index.htm




(Fortune Magazine) -- No one loves Arnold Schwarzenegger more than the solar industry. Kicking off the nation's largest gathering devoted to all things sunny, the California governor won thunderous applause and two standing ovations from the crowd of 20,000 at the San Diego Convention Center. "What's green for the environment can also be green for the economy," he said. "Solar is the future; it's now; it can't be stopped."

For those four days in October, the Solar Power International 2008 convention drew attendees from 70 countries and generated lines stretching out the door for parking, food, and just about everything else. It seemed as if the power of the sun could conquer all. You wouldn't have guessed that just a week before, the financial meltdown had felled sector after sector, including the once-shining solar industry.

It's not that this swelling crowd thinks the macroeconomic troubles the world faces won't affect the solar industry; they know they will. All the leading solar companies have already seen the value of their stocks plummet far more than the 36% the Nasdaq has dropped from the beginning of the year to Oct. 21. The value of the Claymore/MAC global solar energy index (TAN), an ETF comprising global solar stocks, has dropped 56% since it started trading in mid-April.

Given the uncertainty of the economy, some analysts fear that the solar industry's customers could have trouble financing utility-scale solar projects that use lots of modules. Most residential solar installations, which can cost $20,000 to $30,000, require homeowners to borrow, and that money has all but disappeared. Subsidies in Spain, a huge market in recent years, are decreasing, and it is an open question whether countries that have new subsidies coming online, like Italy, Greece, and France, will fill the void.

In contrast to the 1980s - when solar companies got swept away by cheap oil, withdrawn government subsidies, or steep economic downturns - the sense this time is that the industry is here to stay. And not just stay and survive, but stay and flourish. Concern over climate change, combined with falling prices for solar technology, has made this source of carbon-free electricity more attractive than ever. The worldwide market for solar energy roughly doubled last year, to $33 billion, and analysts expect revenues to grow 33% a year for the foreseeable future. What began as a technology championed by tree huggers and pot growers is now a global market that Lux Research, based in New York City, says will reach about $100 billion in sales within the next five years. Germany, Japan, and Spain rank as the top markets for solar power, but other Western European nations are coming on fast, as are China and the U.S. As part of the bailout package, Congress extended the 30% investment tax credits for clean energy, which should give a boost to the American market.

'A real industry'
"Solar has become a real industry," says Marc Porat, a Silicon Valley veteran and chairman of green-building-materials company Serious Materials. Porat was at the conference in San Diego scouting for solar-electricity generating systems for another green project of his. Looking around the hall packed with startups selling everything from tools for manufacturing solar cells to rooftop hardware for mounting equipment to software for analyzing power needs, Porat emphasizes his point. "You can see that all the gaps in the market have been filled by multiple companies," he says. "It's the same with any good entrepreneurial opportunity."

After 30-plus years of steady improvement, solar electric technology is going mainstream. Photovoltaic (PV) panels, which convert sunlight directly into electricity, can increasingly be found on residential rooftops, warehouses, and Wal-Marts. Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms cover huge swaths of land to supply utilities with clean power. Entrepreneurs have also invested in solar thermal farms, where the sun's heat turns liquid into steam to drive a turbine.

Even with state-of-the-art manufacturing methods, PV solar power is still on average twice as expensive to produce as electricity generated by a coal-fired plant. But prices are finally coming down even as efficiency goes up, and some experts think the cost of solar will rival grid power in the next two to three years. In the meantime, government subsidies are bridging the cost gap in many markets. Also, as more nations pass carbon cap-and-trade laws - in the U.S. both Senators McCain and Obama support the idea - natural gas and coal will become more expensive, which should close the gap further. Finally, the industry has achieved scale. These are not backyard enterprises - they pull in hundreds of millions in revenue annually and do business everywhere on the planet. That they all are pursuing economies of scale should help drive down the cost of solar even further.

Although the industry is able to sell solar cells and modules today as fast as it can make them, analysts predict capacity will almost double in 2009. That has caused some analysts to raise the specter of over-supply and the possibility of a bloody price war among manufacturers. "It's going to trigger a shakeout," says Ted Sullivan, a senior analyst with Lux. "The weakest players will either get acquired or fail."

While industry players mostly disagree with Sullivan on the inevitability of aggressive price wars, they do see an upcoming shift in the industry. "I think we all agree that markets tend to consolidate during times like these," says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower, a maker of solar-power-generating systems. "This is one of those periods in an industry where a handful of big players emerge."

Of the 14 pure-play public solar companies, experts expect at least three to stand out from the crowd. The winners possess differentiated technology, enough cash to survive, and the financial heft to enter the entire solar food chain, from producing modules to selling power like any other utility. While the industry is likely to remain volatile for some time to come, long-term investors might want to consider stocks of these three companies, whose values now look attractive.

First Solar
Among the favorites of stock analysts is First Solar (FSLR). Founded in 1999 and originally backed by the investing arm of the Walton (Wal-Mart) family, First Solar went public in 2006, right at the beginning of a wave of solar IPOs. In the coming shakeout First Solar should thrive, because with its cutting-edge thin-film technology it is able to produce solar modules more cheaply per watt than its competitors. Traditional crystalline-silicon photovoltaic systems sandwich wafers of silicon between glass, resulting in those boxy panels you see on rooftops. By contrast, First Solar's thin-film technology applies a fine layer of material directly to a glass substrate. The process is faster, and because it requires just a fraction of the expensive silicon used in traditional PVs, it's vastly cheaper. First Solar, which operates factories in Ohio, Malaysia, and Germany, can produce systems for $1.14 per watt of power, compared with $2.90 per watt for traditional crystalline-silicon solar cells. With subsidies, First Solar's products can compete in many parts of the world with a natural gas or coal-fired power plant.

Run by managers who are fanatics about meeting goals and avoiding unnecessary costs, First Solar routinely blows away both its own and the Street's targets. Its manufacturing team is legendary, bringing online factories that exceed expectations. "They come in at over 100% of projected capacity," says Jenny Chase, a senior analyst with New Energy Finance. "No one else does that."

The shares of this highflying Tempe, Ariz., company peaked at $317 in May and now are trading at $144. Analysts expect sales this year to reach $1.2 billion, up 138% from 2007, and to top $2.1 billion next year, with earnings per share more than doubling. First Solar also sits on $633 million in cash. While the stock is pricey with a current P/E of 50 and a forward P/E of 21, the company's growth prospects and strong balance sheet make it look like a buy.

SunPower
While First Solar has laid claim to the lowest price per watt for its modules, SunPower (SPWRA) claims the most efficient. Inch for inch, its modules produce the most electricity. While SunPower's systems are expensive, you need fewer of them, which makes them perfect for homes and businesses where space is tight. The company, based in San Jose, was spun out of Cypress Semiconductor in 2005 and now sports a $4.2 billion market cap - about eight times the size of its former parent. It has carved out a place in the solar industry similar to Apple's in the computer world, producing well-designed, aesthetically pleasing modules. SunPower has distinguished itself in the market as one of the highest-quality makers of modules. "Brand actually does matter in this industry," New Energy's Chase says, "and SunPower has it."

Besides making and installing systems, SunPower has started on a new track. Much like a utility, it has decided to sell the power its modules produce directly to customers. But that new strategy hasn't kept the stock from getting hammered. Over the past year, SunPower stock fell from a 52-week high of $164 to a low of $37 in early October. Werner is shocked by the drubbing his stock has taken. "The markets are valuing growth companies as if they were lead-pencil companies," he says. "This will take care of itself in time, and we are obviously in a really, really unique time."

Now trading at around $54, with a current P/E of 60 and a forward P/E of 12, this stock, too, looks like a buy. Analysts expect SunPower's sales this year to hit $1.4 billion, up 80% from 2007, and to rise to $2 billion in 2009. Earnings per share are expected to rise from $2.33 in 2008 to $3.55 in 2009, a 52% increase.

Suntech Power
While SunPower is obsessed with quality, what solarmaker Suntech Power (STP) offers is scale. Based in Wuxi, China, the company is the world's largest manufacturer of solar PV modules and has set in place an aggressive plan to stay on top, says Roger Efird, who runs Suntech's business in the Americas. With a cash hoard of $752 million, access to cheap local labor, and deep-pocketed Chinese lenders backing it up, the company has been able to take advantage of the fast-growing market. Efird, who is also chairman of the U.S. Solar Energy Industry Association, believes the risk of price declines in solar modules next year will be offset by continued thirst for new sources of clean energy in both China and the U.S.

Wedged in by people filling Suntech's booth at the San Diego solar conference, Efird looks around the hall. "There's not a person in this room who has a module for sale between now and the end of the year. It's all sold out," he says. "What people forget is that there are hundreds upon hundreds of solar projects, in the U.S. in particular, sitting on the shelf waiting for the right economic moment." Efird believes that moment is coming next year.

To hedge its bets, Suntech, like its competitor SunPower, is moving up the food chain, selling power directly to commercial customers. That's not Suntech's only hedge. The company has invested tens of millions to lock in the price of silicon over the next five to ten years, betting that demand will rise and prices eventually will trend up. Competing manufacturers without Suntech's resources will have to face the vagaries of the spot market for silicon in years to come. Of course, if silicon prices drop - new capacity is coming onstream - the move could prove a costly mistake for Suntech.

Suntech's share price has fallen from a 52-week high of $90 in January to $18 in mid-October. It looks cheap, with a current P/E of 17 and a forward P/E of 9. This year's sales, stemming mostly from its business in Asia, are estimated to clock in at $2.1 billion, up 62% over 2007, rising to $3.2 billion in 2009, as it pushes hard in the U.S. Earnings per share are projected to go from $1.67 this year to $2.50 next.

The shares of even the best solar companies have fallen on hard times. Yet for anyone who believes that the world is destined to move away from a carbon-based economy, investing in this nascent industry, at least in the long term, may very well be a move you won't regret.