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Showing posts with label do it yourself investors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label do it yourself investors. Show all posts

Get Ready to Retire -- Straight Talk (Marketwatch)


6 ways to keep your dream retirement on track

Published: Nov 7, 2016 11:53 a.m. ET

You may be ready to retire, but your money may not be



Are you a retirement “do-it-yourselfer,” convinced you can plan for your own retirement without paying for a financial adviser? That’s all well and good, but given that money managers work with people in a variety of financial situations, their experiences with the problems that prevent people from retiring can offer insights into how to overcome those challenges.
I spoke to a few experts to find out how they handle that difficult situation: a client who wants to retire but whose financial picture suggests she shouldn’t yet do so.
Ideally, of course, advisers want people to seek financial advice early on, years before they plan to retire. “Then we have the ability to help you work towards your goals over a period of time and make adjustments as things change,” said Nancy Skeans, managing director of personal financial services at Schneider Downs Wealth Management Advisors in Pittsburgh, Penn.
But sometimes people don’t show up at the adviser’s office until they’re eager to leave the workforce for good. In those cases, she said, advisers sometimes are forced to deliver bad news.
“We just had that situation with an individual and his wife,” Skeans said. “He’s thinking about retiring in two to three years. It was very obvious to me when I looked at his balance sheet, coupled with what I backed out as to their spending, that if they retired immediately they would put themselves into a precarious situation.”
One red flag was that this couple hadn’t accounted for their retirement tax bill. “All of their assets were in tax-deferred accounts,” Skeans said. “Every dollar they spend is going to be a dollar plus the taxes. That means, if you’re trying to support a standard of living after tax, you’re going to have to gross that money up.”
So, one lesson is to remember that the government is going to take a bite out of your retirement account. Here are more lessons financial advisers say they’ve been forced to teach new clients:
1. Be disciplined about a budget
In 2008, Skeans said, a client who was about 64 years old was laid off. “He decided he wasn’t going to look for other work,” she said. “We ran the projection. Obviously, at that point in time the portfolios were down because of the market and I was deeply concerned.
“Fortunately the guy was a finance guy, a controller for a small company. He heard us loud and clear that the biggest thing he and his wife needed to do was stay within a budget,” she said.
At the time, Skeans talked with the couple about how to stabilize their finances through reduced spending. “He was very adamant he did not want to go back to work,” she said. “We were able to help him and his wife structure a budget and they have stuck to it and continue to do so.”
And now? “Eight years later, their portfolio is just slightly below where it was eight years ago,” Skeans said.
2. Take a practice run
People sometimes underestimate what they’ll spend in retirement, especially in the early years when they suddenly find themselves with plenty of free time and energy, said Tripp Yates, a wealth strategist at Waddell & Associates in Memphis, Tenn.
 “I’ve seen it where people do a budget for retirement and they tell me, ‘OK, we’ve done all the numbers and we can live off $50,000 a year,’” Yates said. Too often, that’s a bare-bones budget that doesn’t take into account travel and other activities. “The first five to 10 years of retirement, people are probably going to spend more rather than less, because they’re in fairly good health and want to enjoy that time,” he said.
One way to get a good handle on your spending is to test-run your retirement budget, he said. In one recent conversation with a couple, he told them: “Maybe one spouse who really wants to retire can. The other spouse continues working and maybe we take six months to a year and try to live on that budget, practice, see if it’s actually doable before both husband and wife call it retirement,” Yates said.
3. Don’t focus on the market
Given the media’s attention on the market’s every move, it’s no surprise that people seeking help from an adviser often fret about what happen next. That’s the wrong focus, said Robert Klein, president of the Retirement Income Center in Newport Beach, Calif. (Klein is also a writer for MarketWatch’s RetireMentor section.)
People read so much in the media about performance and that’s naturally their focus until you show them on paper it’s all about your goals and planning for those and controlling what you can control,” he said. While investors must make sure their investments are diversified, there’s no way of knowing when the market might take another steep plunge.
“You have to control what you can control and develop prudent strategies that are going to work no matter what the market does,” Klein said.
4. Be clear about your goals
Retirement planning is about more than “just having X dollars in income,” Klein said. Figure out what you want retirement to look like, and then work from that. “It’s about a lifestyle in retirement. What are they going to be doing day-to-day in retirement?” he said. “Then you can focus on the finances: ‘What is it going to take so I can do that?’”
For some people, a hard look at a retirement lifestyle leads them to choose to work longer, Klein said. “A lot of people are better off working longer even if they can afford to retire. They just don’t have the hobbies. It’s a whole different routine when you retire,” he said. “Phased retirement is really good for a lot of those people, so they can take baby steps into retirement,” he added.
5. Use software that provides a picture
If you’re planning your own retirement, are you using financial software that will create projections as a chart? “Most people don’t communicate with numbers, they communicate pictorially,” said Kimberly Foss, founder of Empyrion Wealth Management Inc. in Roseville, Calif. 
Foss said she shows clients a simple chart depicting how long their money is likely to last if they retire now. In some cases, she might produce a second chart that shows how spending less might make their outlook improve, and then talk with the client about options, such as downsizing the house or refinancing, working longer or delaying the purchase of a new car.
For one couple, seeing those pictures and having that discussion made all the difference, Foss said. They wanted to spend the same amount of money in retirement that they’d been spending while they worked, but the size of their savings account didn’t support that goal. So, they switched from the country club to a lower-cost health club, refinanced into a cheaper mortgage and started cooking at home more rather than eating out.
Reducing those costs and others preserved their portfolio for the long haul. Said Foss: “It created the income so that they could retire.”
6. Get real with your adult children
In some cases, people retire but unforeseen expenses put their financial security at risk. Skeans said one client unexpectedly found herself supporting her adult daughter and grandson, who live in her home, even as she herself recently entered a care facility.
“She’s taken out enormous amounts of money to help her daughter and grandson,” Skeans said. “She’s supporting their household and she’s paying the cost of assisted living. I said, ‘If you continue at this pace, this portfolio is going to be gone in five years.’”
Skeans said if the client sells her home—that is, asks her daughter to find her own place—that money would bolster her finances. “She should be able to make it and still leave something to this daughter in the end,” Skeans said. “She said, ‘I’m going to talk to my daughter about that.’”

where to invest 10,000 (bloomberg business week)

Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now

Five experts weigh in. 
Emerging markets are still favorites,
 but Europe is also on the list.
Successful investors take risks. The trick is to take smart ones, in a diversified portfolio.
Here’s how.
First, make sure you’re covered on the financial basics. Then start scouting out powerful places to invest any excess cash that's making you next to nothing in a savings account. With the holidays and perhaps a raise or bonus on the horizon, it’s a good time to make that money work for you and your retirement.
To help, we asked five leading investors to share their best ideas on where to invest $10,000 right now. (It makes sense for smaller sums, too.) We first quizzed them back in June, when we also asked exchange-traded-fund analyst Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence to choose ETFs that came closest to the strategies and themes they highlighted. Some of the experts also run mutual funds that employ their strategies.
Among their summer favorites were out-of-favor emerging markets, and many ETFs tracking those markets have seen double-digit gains. How did our panel of experts do last quarter, exactly? Very well, thank you. Check out the results that follow each new entry below. For comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was up 3.3 percent from June 30 to Sept. 30.
So is it too late to get into emerging markets now? Is China still promising or just too messy? We’ll let the panel answer, and share its new ideas, ranging from opportunities in floating-rate bank loans to consumer-related stocks in China.
You can toggle between last quarter’s and this quarter’s advice with a quick click, or just check out the panel’s advice for the here and now.
 Either way, as we emphasized in June’s “Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now” and above, take a look at these financial musts first.
Then see if you can profit from our experts’ latest ideas.
Barry Ritholtz
Chairman and chief investment officer, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Stick With ‘Ugly Ducklings’

Three months ago, we looked at where to invest $10,000. My suggestion, assuming your portfolio was already well diversified in low-cost global indices, was to look at inexpensive, underperforming asset classes that were “ripe for a reversion towards their historic average returns.” I suggested two emerging market indices, with the caveat that “ugly duckling investments” like these often need years to blossom.
I was way too pessimistic, as these two funds have rallied about 12 percent since then.
Rather than cash out, I am going to suggest you stay with this investment for longer. Not just a little longer, but a whole lot longer.
Why? There are at least four compelling reasons:
First, and most obvious, emerging markets remain the cheapest broad equity markets in the world. The U.S. is fully valued; the developed world ex-U.S. is also pricey. Europe, despite all of its woes, isn’t much cheaper. EM, on the other hand, remains attractively priced. If you want to see how well this thesis is playing out, look at a chart of the ratio between the S&P 500 index (SPY) versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM). When the line is rising, U.S. markets are outperforming emerging markets; when it is falling, EM is outperforming U.S.
Second, as we noted last time, the U.S. has been outperforming EM for about seven years. These cycles can run anywhere from five to 10 years, and given the valuation differential we could be in the very early innings of a long bull market for emerging economies.
Third, emerging markets are affected by the strength of the U.S. dollar and pricing of commodities. Today, the dollar is at multi-year highs while commodities are the cheapest they've been in many years. I have no idea how long this condition will persist, but eventually mean reversion will rear its head. The dollar will weaken, commodities will see price increases, and both of those benefit the EM economies and their stock markets.
The same two inexpensive investments—DFA Emerging Markets Core Equity (DFCEX, purchased through advisers) and the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VEMAX)—remain my choices. [DFCEX rose 7.4 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30; VEMAX gained 6.5 percent.]
Fourth and last is a trading rule I developed a long time ago: So long as the underlying reasons for owning something are still in place, you hold on to that position. Never make excuses for not selling once your thesis is disproved. Conversely, until your underlying reasons for ownership are no longer valid, don’t sell merely because of a little price appreciation. Cutting your losers and letting your winners run is much better investing strategy.
Way to play it with ETFs: The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)  holds 36,000 emerging-market stocks, with its heaviest weightings in China, Taiwan, and India. VWO is the ETF version of Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEMAX) and costs the same. Either will do.
Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETFs Balchunas chose to track Ritholtz’s advice were the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)  and theiShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV) . They rose 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively, for the three months ended Sept. 30.
Sarah Ketterer
CEO and fund manager, Causeway Capital Management

Invest in Corporate ‘Self-Help’

In this seemingly endless environment of economic stagnation, what will drive revenue and profit growth? Central banks may be running out of monetary solutions to stimulate credit and demand. While we wait for the political landscape to become less muddled, investors can get access to companies engaged in operational restructuring or “self-help.”
These companies, boasting strong balance sheets and modest levels of debt, typically have managements committed to a continuous and inexorable process of cost cutting and increased efficiency. In mobile telephony, especially in Japan, China, and South Korea, several of the largest listed companies have found increasingly ingenious ways to extract above-industry-average returns from the mature telecommunications market. [China Mobile Ltd. and SK Telecom Co. Ltd. were in the top 15 holdings of the Causeway International Value Fund (CIVIX), as of June 30.] Smart self-help moves by senior managements of these companies have led to a reduction in capital expenditures and operating costs.
These companies are typically creating innovative and value-added services, introducing popular data plans and benefiting from supportive local regulations. Similarly, in the more mature segment of technology, “legacy tech” companies also have managements committed to reinvigorating growth. Even though these companies have valuable proprietary technology, sell-side analysts put some of them in the dinosaur category. But the analysts often take a short-term view. Market pessimism can give investors a chance to buy world-class technology franchises in transition.
For example, large enterprise software companies must make a successful transition from an on-premises licensing business model to a cloud-computing subscription-based model. Semiconductor companies currently expert in mobile wireless technology are making measurable progress to deliver next-generation technology. Look for efficient operations, focused and shareholder-friendly managements, as well as inherent advantages in research and development expertise and resulting defendable intellectual property. [SAP and Samsung Electronics are CIVIX holdings.]
Economic malaise aside, these great companies, albeit often labeled mature and in transition, still trade at valuations that imply the potential for above-market returns.
Way to play it with ETFs: The First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)  holds tech companies that pay the highest dividend, which means it has the largest percentage of “legacy tech” names such as Intel Corp., Microsoft Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., and Oracle Corp. This “I love the 90s” portfolio has the lowest volatility, lowest average price-to-earnings ratio, and highest dividend yield of the technology ETFs.
Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETF Balchunas chose to track Ketterer's advice back in June was The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) . It rose 11 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30.
Mark Mobius
Executive chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group

Look to China’s Internet

We believe emerging markets should be included in a well-diversified portfolio, and one place to invest $10,000 of that portfolio is in China. Since the beginning of 2016, we've observed the Chinese stock market acting with high volatility. That's due in large part to changes in government policies as regards supporting or heating up [the market] but then cooling the market down. This, of course, has created a lot of speculation and confusion. However, what we are certain of is that the fundamentals in China still remain positive.
Despite a decelerated growth rate, China remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. We are not too concerned by the current slowing growth nor its long-term investment prospects. Looking past the Chinese stock markets, we are now on the ground and looking to capitalize on the long-term Chinese growth story and the ongoing transformation of its economy from a production/export-led economy to a services-led economy.
Emerging markets globally in many cases have been severely oversold and are cheap in relation to their long-term earnings capacity. This is true in China as well as other countries. We are probably nearing the end of the downtrend in prices, so our focus must be company-specific rather than making a commitment to the market in general. We are most bullish for consumer-related stocks and particularly technology stocks.
More specifically, Internet stocks are showing healthy growth characteristics with good margins. Selected commodity shares are still cheap and are among our favorites, but I emphasize “selected,” since not all the sector stocks are of interest. Oil prices have shown a bottoming out, and with the expectation that those oil prices will not have a dramatic upside, diversified oil companies should do well because of their downstream operations. [Downstream refers to refining and other activity that leads to selling to consumers at gas stations, rather than activities like production and exploration.]
Ways to play it with ETFs: The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)  is a highly liquid, fast-growing China ETF that tracks Hong Kong- and U.S.-listed Chinese companies. It has a 34 percent weighting in tech stocks such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. and a 10 percent allocation to consumer stocks. Investors could pair MCHI with the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) . It holds locally traded A-shares, albeit with only 8 percent in the tech sector but with 16 percent in consumer stocks.
Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: In the first iteration of "Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now," the two ETF analyst Balchunas chose to track Mobius's advice were the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)  and the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) . The ETFs were up 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively, for the three months ended Sept. 30.
Rob Arnott
Co-founder, Research Affiliates

Add Out-of-Favor Europe

My recommendation in June was to concentrate on emerging-market value stocks. Over the three months ending in August, the Fundamental Index in emerging markets rallied by 17 percent, conventional emerging markets stocks were up 12 percent, and U.S. stocks were up about 4 percent. [Fundamental indexation is a way to weight the stocks that make up an index by fundamental factors of their business, such as sales, book value, and cash flow, rather than their market capitalization. This leads to a tilt toward value, rather than, say, the growth tilt of the market cap-weighted S&P 500 Index.]
Will the rally in EM stocks continue? We have no idea. Valuation levels suggest that the long-term prospects remain excellent. Even after the run-up, EM stocks are trading at about 13 times their long-term (10-year) earnings, compared to European stocks at 14 times and U.S. stocks at a nosebleed level of 27 times. The Fundamental Index in emerging markets is even cheaper, at around 8½ times earnings.
Looking through the lens of valuation, it now makes sense to consider adding European stocks to the mix. Note that both EM and Europe are severely out of favor. That’s normal for bargains. We win, on average over time, by buying whatever others shun.
The same value principle applies to other asset classes. Some out-of-mainstream bond markets have pushed into bargain territory after a three-year bear market. The best time to pivot into an asset class is when it is most shunned. With near-zero yields on mainstream bonds, we can seek higher yield in other bond markets. Floating-rate bank loans are attractive for their higher yield and their ability to weather any backup in bond yields. Emerging-market local currency bonds are also interesting based on strong fundamentals and the tailwind from cheap currencies. And EM local currencies offer ample opportunity, having tumbled from a 25 percent premium five years ago to a 19 percent discount today!
Today I would invest $10,000 by placing $2,500 in each of these four asset classes: EM deep value stocks, European stocks (preferably with a value bias), floating-rate bank loans, and EM local currency bonds. This is not a “permanent portfolio,” but it’s a nicely diversified (if unconventional) portfolio of reasonably cheap markets.
Ways to play it with ETFs: An ETF to consider is PowerShares Fundamental Emerging Markets (PXH) , which has fees of 0.49 percent. (It uses Arnott's fundamental indexing approach.) For Europe there's the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) , for floating-rate bank loans there's the PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio (BKLN), and for EM local currency bonds investors can use the VanEck Vectors J.P Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC).
Performance of last quarter's ETF plays: To track Arnott's advice in the last go-around, ETF analyst Balchunas chose the First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund (FEM) , which uses growth and value factors to select stocks. It gained 8 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30. An ETF mentioned above, PXH, which also would have been a good way to play Arnott's advice, rose 11 percent. A mutual fund, the Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Fund (FNDE), uses Arnott's approach as well.
Francis Kinniry
Principal, Vanguard Investment Strategy Group

Add to Your Losers

If the original investment plan you established still meets your long-term goals and objectives, new proceeds of $10,000 can be allocated to return your portfolio to its original asset allocation. As such, the new cash flow would be seen as a "non-taxable rebalancing" opportunity. In other words, you can better align your portfolio back to the investment plan without selling better-performing assets—and thus realizing a taxable gain—to buy more of what hasn’t done well in the portfolio.
Why would anyone want to do this? Because a portfolio’s asset allocation is the major determinant of its risk-and-return characteristics. Yet, over time, asset classes produce different returns, so the portfolio’s asset allocation changes. Therefore, to recapture the portfolio’s original risk-and-return characteristics, the portfolio should be rebalanced. Portfolio rebalancing is extremely important, because it helps investors to maintain their target asset allocation. By periodically rebalancing, investors can diminish the tendency for “portfolio drift” and thus potentially reduce their exposure to risk relative to their target asset allocation.
Ways to play it with ETFs: While there isn’t one ETF for Kinniry’s suggestion, it’s a good excuse to point out that investors can now get a fully diversified portfolio with ETFs for a blended fee of around 0.10 percent using funds offered by Vanguard Group, Charles Schwab Corp., and BlackRock Inc., which just lowered fees on its “core” series aimed at individual, buy-and-hold investors.
Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Kinniry’s June commentary focused on low-cost target-date funds, and there is no real way to replicate all the parts of a target-date fund with an ETF. Balchunas focused instead on an asset allocation ETF, theiShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) . It has 60 percent in equity ETFs and 40 percent in bond ETFs. It rose 3 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30.

Lump Sum vs Pension - what is right for you? (Bloomberg)


You've Been Offered a Ton of Money. Should You Take It?

If a former employer tempts you with a lump sum for your pension, consider these four points before you jump.
 Suzanne Woolley
 WealthWatch
October 22, 2015 — 7:00 AM EDT

It's like the famous marshmallow tests done at Stanford University decades ago, when researchers gave some kids marshmallows and told them if they waited 15 minutes to eat them they'd get a second one.  The kids who delayed gratification went on to have better lives, judged by a variety of measures, than the kids who didn't.  
When it comes to your pension, you are the kid. The marshmallow is a big chunk of money.
The test: Within 30 to 90 days, choose to take your pension all at once, as a lump sum based on the present value of your future pension benefit, or wait and have the money trickle in on a monthly basis over the course of your retirement.
If you're lucky enough to have been in a traditional, defined-benefit pension plan at some point, it's a choice you may have to make in the next couple of months.
Before 2012, when legislative changes  made offering lump sums more attractive to companies, the offers weren't common. Activity revved up in 2013 and 2014, and there's been a dramatic uptick this year, said Matt McDaniel, who leads Mercer’s U.S. defined-benefits risk practice. The end of the year tends to be particularly busy, he said, with offers going out on Nov. 1 or Dec. 1.

Employers have a big financial motivation to offer lump sums. Pension costs are rising as workers live longer, and companies would love to get those long-term liabilities off their balance sheets. They'd also like to stop paying rising amounts to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC), a federal agency that functions as a backstop for pensions at insolvent companies. Since 2007, the PBGC's per-person flat premiums for single-employer pension plans have risen from $31 to $57. In 2016, they'll be $64.

The argument for accepting a lump sum offer is much, much weaker. As the General Accounting Office put it in a report issued in January, "participants potentially face a reduction in their retirement assets when they accept a lump sum offer." Yet about 40 to 60 percent of those offered lump sums take them, said McDaniel.

That may be because they don't have enough information to make a good decision. The GAO report notes that the 11 information packets from plan sponsors to plan participants it reviewed "consistently lacked key information needed to make an informed decision or were otherwise unclear."
Should you accept a lump sum offer? It depends on:

Your health 
If your close relatives tend to live into their hundreds, the lifetime annuity that a defined benefit pension plan provides is extremely valuable. If you have significant health problems, smoke, and close relatives died or had serious health problems fairly young, the benefit may not be as valuable. Statistically. To be frank.
The Social Security Administration's life expectancy calculator provides a longevity benchmark. It shows a life span of 84.4 for a man who is 65 today; for women it's 86.7. For a more nuanced estimate, David Littell, director of the retirement income planning program at the nonprofit American College of Financial Services, likes www.livingto100.com. (Helpful hint: Have your cholesterol numbers handy.)
Your alternatives
If you're tempted to take the lump sum and buy an annuity on your own, think twice. For starters, you won't get the lower institutional pricing your plan gets. And if you're a woman, you'll pay a higher price, because in your defined-benefit plan annuity pricing must be gender-neutral; outside of the plans, women pay more for annuities, because they live longer. (That same logic means women pay less for life insurance.) Then there's the task of vetting an annuity provider.
The best way to determine the value of a lump sum offer is to compare it with a commercially available product. You'll probably find that the lump sum isn't enough to buy an annuity outside of the pension plan that provides the same monthly benefit,  Littell said, particularly if your plan offers cost-of-living increases.
Littell went to immediateannuities.com, a consumer website that provides annuity quotes from major insurers, and looked for the lowest price on a deferred single-life annuity (with no death benefit) with a benefit of $500 a month and payments to start at age 65. The result: At age 50, it would take $51,000 for a woman to buy that annuity, compared with $47,500 for a man. A couple would pay $60,000.
If the woman is offered a lump sum of, say, $50,000, it might seem a wash. But if her company subsidizes early retirements and her plan includes features such as a cost-of-living adjustment, or if her lump sum offer is $40,000, that argues for staying in the plan.
Your investing expertise
If you've had long-term success in investing your own money, taking a lump sum may make sense. To earn a decent return, you'll probably have to leave the pension in equities for a few decades, which means coping with market swings.
"In times of volatility, like we had this summer, there's something to be said about that guaranteed check you know will show up in your mailbox every 30 days," said Matthew Sommer, director of retirement strategy for Janus Capital Group.
Also, an annuity's guaranteed income simplifies financial management, which is especially valuable later in life, when people are less likely to be capable of managing money.
Your cash needs
When the offer is between $10,000 and $50,000, the majority of people accepting it just cash it out, said McDaniel.3 That means paying income tax, and a 10 percent penalty if you cash out before age 59 1/2.
Cashing out early is a cardinal sin of personal finance. Tax-deferred investment vehicles let the earnings on money compound, year after year. Also, income from cashing out could push you into a higher tax bracket. 
Littell, who isn't a fan of the lump sum, points out that one good use of it would be to defer tapping Social Security until you're old enough to get the maximum benefit. And when the cash is in your investment account, you can leave it to children, other heirs, or charity.

Trading Stocks Online - Don't be a Sucker (WALL ST JNL)

Smart Trading for Those Who Seldom Trade

Christophe Vorlet
Even the most patient stock investors have to buy and sell sometimes, and how you trade can make a big difference in how much money you make.
You could buy or sell a stock using a “market order,” an instruction to your broker to trade as soon as possible at the best price available in the market. Or you could use a “limit order” that indicates the highest price you are willing to pay if you are buying—or the lowest price you will accept if you are selling.
In today’s world of electronic exchanges dominated by high-frequency traders using advanced technology to trade at blazing speed, market orders can wreak havoc on your returns without warning.
Consider data from Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex, a firm in Winnetka, Ill., that analyzes trading patterns. It looked at recent price moves in the shares of Parsley Energy of Austin, Texas, an oil-and-gas production company with a total stock-market value of about $2.1 billion.
Let’s say you placed a market order to buy shares in Parsley at 11:06:34 a.m. on Feb. 6, when the stock stood at $16.30. By 11:06:35, it had leapt to $18.20—a 12% gain in a single second. Over the next three seconds, it wilted back down to $16.60.
A spokeswoman for Parsley said the price move could have been related to a positive earnings announcement that morning, although the news was released before the market opened.
This past week, Parsley traded at about $16.80. Someone who used a limit order to buy at $16.30 already is in the black. Someone who, one second later, bought with a market order at $18.20 needs the stock to go up 8% from here to just break even.
Such momentary jolts in price have been occurring dozens of times a day for years, Mr. Hunsader says, and can affect larger companies, too. Only 32 seconds after the market opened at 9:30 a.m. on Feb. 10, shares in General Motors nose-dived from $37.17 to $36.40 in less than one-quarter of a second.
If you had entered a market order to sell GM when it was at $37.17, you might have gotten only $36.40 instead, or 2% less than you expected. Two seconds later, the price had recovered to $37.10.
Investors balk at paying brokerage commissions, but they often don’t even notice that a market order led them to pay far more for a stock than they should have.
One antidote, traders and researchers say, is what is known as a “marketable limit order.”
Stocks are quoted with both a “bid” and an “ask.” The bid is the highest price that buyers are willing to pay; the ask is the lowest price that sellers are offering to accept.
Say the best bid on a stock is $10.00 and the best ask is $10.02. If you want to buy immediately but don’t want to pay more than a few pennies extra, submit a marketable buy-limit order at $10.05. Such an order should be filled at $10.02 unless the market instantly runs up, in which case you are protected against paying more than $10.05. If the market drops, you will buy at that lower price.
A disclosure called a Rule 606 report shows basic information about how a brokerage handles trades, including the proportion filled as market orders. The percentage of market orders in New York Stock Exchange trades disclosed on the Rule 606 filings of retail brokerage firms varies widely, from 15% at TD Ameritrade to 24% at Vanguard Brokerage Services, 43% at E*Trade Financial and 50% at Fidelity Brokerage Services and Charles Schwab.
Some firms, including Credit Suisse Group, say they automatically convert most market orders to marketable limit orders in an effort to get the best prices for their customers. Most retail brokerages charge the same commission on limit and market orders.
Speak up to make sure your trades aren’t being handled as market orders
You always should use a marketable limit order when trading, says Lawrence Harris, a finance professor at the University of Southern California and former chief economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission. “It forces you to think more carefully about your order.”
It also could save you from trading at a price that could eat up a year’s worth of return on a stock.
 Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com, and follow him on Twitter at @jasonzweigwsj.

How to Handle Stock Market Drops (WSJ)

6:18 pm ET
Aug 24, 2015

MARKETS

The Cruel Psychology of the 1,000-Point Drop


Bloomberg News
If you weren’t paying attention to the stock market before Monday, you are now. A 1,000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will do that.
As the financial blogger Ben Carlson pointed out this past weekend, sharp drops in the market transfix our attention, with short-term losses overshadowing our awareness of longer-term gains.
Crimson arrows pointing down, pundits shrieking on financial television, stock-market charts flickering like monitors in a hospital emergency room: all these indicators make what is happening in the short term seem perfectly clear. But if you form long-term investing plans based on them, you will be sorry.
Being acutely sensitive to bad—or potentially bad—outcomes has probably helped the human species survive and thrive. So it’s no wonder that when people process data, they suffer from what economists Kip Viscusi and Richard Zeckhauser call “denominator blindness”—the tendency to focus on the top of the fraction, not the bottom—or the magnitude of bad outcomes, not on the total number of events from which those outcomes are drawn.
Experiments have shown, for instance, that people believe cancer is riskier when they are told that it kills “1,286 out of 10,000 people” than when they hear that it kills “24.14 out of 100 people.” Hearing “1,286” immediately brings a large number of victims to mind, while “24.14” is simply a much smaller number.
To notice that the first number is less than 13%, while the second is more than 24%, you have to focus on the denominators of the fractions and do some quick division. But your emotions will likely hijack your brain long before you get to that point.
Ask almost any investor if the stock market is more volatile than it used to be, and you will hear a resounding “yes.” That’s because the Dow routinely moves up or down at least 100 points in a day—a round number that sounds large and important.
But, even after the recent spike in volatility, the market has fluctuated far less sharply in the last three years than has been typical in the past. And even after the market’s recent haircut, 100 points is only about a 0.6% change in the Dow.
A 1,000-point move, on the other hand, is a full 6.6% decline. But how significant is it, and what should you do about it?
Stocks are still not cheap. The best guide we have to the valuation of the stock market—the 10-year average “cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio” or CAPE, popularized by Yale University economist Robert Shiller—says U.S. stocks are still above their historical average.
On Aug. 4, stocks were selling at a CAPE of 26.4 times, about 50% higher than their average since 1871 and about 10% higher than they’ve run in the past three decades.
At the depth of Monday’s drop, stocks were down to 23.6 times—far from a bargain based on past levels.
But investors who want absolute certainty will be utterly disappointed. To be realistic about the future, you have to recognize the limitations of the past.
Historical data might feel as unchanging as an exhibit in a museum, but the financial past is nonstationary. As St. Augustine pointed out more than 1,600 years ago, time is a continuum. Today’s returns will be in the market’s past results tomorrow, and the “long-term” return changes slightly almost every day as the latest increment or decrement of performance gets averaged into it.
So the belief that the long-term average for CAPE of roughly 16 times is the “right” value for the market is dubious, says Prof. Shiller. Because the past is forever in flux, determining the proper level of valuation “is so fuzzy,” he says. “It’s not a science.”
The lowest the CAPE ratio got during the financial crisis was 13.3, in March 2009—partly because the 10 years of data on which CAPE is based still included, at that time, the euphoric period of 1999 and 2000. That ratio of 13.3 was barely below the long-term average. So investors who waited for a definitive sign, in 2008 and 2009, that stocks had gotten to bargain levels never got one—and missed out on the ensuing bull market.
We all long for certainty, some kind of chime or singing telegram that would tell us exactly what to do. After all the drama of the past few days, stocks are a little cheaper than they were before. They could get a lot cheaper still before this is over.
But don’t let anyone fool you into thinking that history or mathematics can identify some exact entry point at which you can know you’re buying back into stocks at a bargain level. The future is uncertain, but so is the past.
In order to capture the potentially higher returns that stocks can offer, you have to reconcile yourself to the certainty of horrifying short-term losses. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be in stocks—and shouldn’t feel any shame about it, either.