Clean Energy: LED lighting market growth (WSJ)

LED Growth Is Making Sapphire Supplies Look Precious

By Sari Krieger
Of DOW JONES CLEAN TECHNOLOGY INSIGHT
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The light-emitting diode market is heating up and expected to boom in coming years, but there is already a supply chain bottleneck in the material on which the LEDs are grown - known as a sapphire substrate - which could hinder LED industry growth.

Manufacturers of the substrates, which are synthetic versions of the precious stones, haven't been able to produce enough to keep up with the recently rising LED demand, causing sapphire prices to spike. While this shortage may slow adoption some, or may hurt LED makers, it could benefit the few suppliers that do make this material, which include Rubicon Technology Inc. (RBCN), Monocrystal PLC, Kyocera Corp. (6971.TO, KYO) and Namiki Precision Jewel Co.

Jed Dorsheimer, an analyst with Canaccord Adams Inc., warns that the shortage issue is "severe." He said that in order to meet demand, current sapphire capacity has to grow by two to three times, depending on how much the LED market expands.

When the economy started to revive last year, demand for LEDs grew quickly for use in backlighting, such as for televisions, as well as for general lighting applications. According to the Department of Energy, LEDs are 10 times more energy efficient than incandescent lights and companies are starting to take advantage of these savings. The DOE predicts that LEDs will make up 70% of the lighting market by 2020, up from less than 1% currently.
Similarly, The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-based research firm, forecasts that U.S. demand for advanced lighting products such as LEDs, compact fluorescent lamps and sodium vapor HID lamps will grow 11% per year to $6.8 billion in 2013.

Dorsheimer said rising demand already has boosted sapphire prices by 50% in the past seven months, but he doesn't expect new capacity to come online until 2011.

He said the industry average price for a two-inch sapphire wafer went from $18 in 2007 to $10 in June 2009 to $15 now. A four-inch wafer, which has been less widely produced, has held steady at $80 to $90, he said.

Bill Weissman, chief financial officer of Franklin Park, Ill.-based Rubicon, said his company saw a 7% rise in the price of its sapphire in the last quarter of 2009 and predicts another 15% rise this year. But Weissman said that the sapphire is only 8% of the material for the LED chip, so it shouldn't affect the price of the final LED too much.

Expanding sapphire production to meet the rising demand can't be done quickly, according to Tom Griffiths, president and publisher of LED industry publication Solid State Lighting Design News.

"Sapphire production is capital-equipment driven, and both investment and credit funding is still being approached cautiously, so getting the money to expand isn't as easy as it may have been in past years," he said.

"Tightened supply will increase the sapphire costs and somewhat dampen the industry growth," Griffiths said. "That will be relatively short lived, as increased profits will make capital equipment expansion easier for existing suppliers, as well as enable new entrants to show a convincing business plan to get funding for equipment."

Companies grow sapphire by heating aluminum oxide to 3,800 degrees Fahrenheit. Then LED manufacturers buy the sapphire wafers and load them into machines that lay on top of the sapphire wafer chemical layers of gallium nitrite, which is the light-emitting material. Compared with natural sapphires, the manufactured versions don't have impurities and are therefore clear.

Dorsheimer said that because companies were hesitant to expand production, waiting to see whether the increase in demand would remain, it will take a year or two for sapphire-makers to catch up with demand. Also, he said that LED-makers are asking for larger sapphire wafers, up from the traditional two-inch wafers, making production more difficult.

"New entrants are starting on four-inch and six-inch [wafers]," Dorsheimer said. "This reduces the number of sapphire suppliers as the specifications change when going to larger wafers - quality becomes more important."

Weissman said his company has ordered more machines to expand capacity. The company is building two new plants, one in Malaysia and one in Batavia, Ill., but they won't be ready until later in the year. Until Rubicon and other sapphire makers can expand, the world's sapphire supplies are tapped, Weissman said.

As well as the benefits of higher prices flowing to sapphire makers, Griffiths said Durham, N.C.-based LED-maker Cree Inc. (CREE) could gain a competitive advantage from the sapphire shortage because it uses silicon carbide as a substrate to grow LEDs.
"[Cree] can therefore presumably keep their cost-saving ramp moving unhindered," Griffiths said. "Eventually every LED manufacturer benefits as there will surely be a period of excess sapphire supply that will tank those substrate prices, at least temporarily while supplies adjust and consolidation occurs."

(Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight covers news about public and private clean-technology and alternative-energy companies.)

-By Sari Krieger, Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight; 212-416-2016; sari.krieger@dowjones.com