the Declining Dollar - Hedge Your Portfolio (Barrons)

Foreign-Reserve Bingo
By ROBERT FLINT
What investors seek as they exit dollar-denominated assets.



INVESTORS OF ALL STRIPES NEED TO BRACE THEMSELVES for a world in which the U.S. dollar no longer plays the dominant role.Although the greenback will remain the currency of choice in trade and finance for many more years, signs have already emerged that changes are under way.

Governments abroad have grown increasingly skeptical about the dollar as a store of value for their national reserves. China, Russia and others have expressed concern about their dollar-denominated holdings because of the budget deficits the U.S. faces in financing bailout and stimulus measures.
Some countries have taken steps to reduce the proportion of their reserves held in dollar-denominated assets by switching to investments that will hold their value as consumer prices rise.
The U.S. decision announced Wednesday to boost sales of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, is largely seen as a nod to China, the world's largest holder of U.S. government debt.


The search for alternatives to the greenback, while still in its early stages, will eventually have broad implications. Diversification of foreign-exchange reserves is no longer an issue solely for central banks and monetary authorities.

So where does that leave individual investors? Is there such a thing as a diversification play?

There is, say analysts, but it's more a long-term strategy. The dollar's allure has been tarnished, but any significant shift away from U.S. assets by central banks will take years.

"It won't happen overnight," says Andrew Busch, global foreign-exchange strategist at BMO Capital in Chicago.

There's still no other country or region that can match the liquidity and depth of U.S. capital markets. The dollar will continue to play a key role in the placement of foreign-exchange reserves until a viable alternative emerges. So far, there's been no evidence of any officially sanctioned dumping of the dollar.

One strategy for investors would be to mimic central banks and slowly move more of their holdings into non-dollar-denominated assets. The euro is most obvious option, at least in the short run, says Busch.

James Trippon, editor of the China Stock Digest, suggests investors can position themselves to benefit from inflation and a declining dollar through commodity-related plays in energy, metals or even foodstuffs. Australia and New Zealand, with commodity-based economies, stand to benefit as the world economy heals and growth speeds up again in China.
Another option would be American depositary receipts of Chinese corporations in the energy, banking or insurance sectors, Trippon says.

For private investors as well as central banks, it amounts to slow and careful diversification away from the dollar. Coping with a less-than-almighty dollar is an unnerving prospect for many Americans, but one they are bound to face.




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