The Bailout Banks - How are They Doing (Barrons)

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MONDAY, MAY 11, 2009
FEATURE



After All That Stress, a Hugh Sigh of Relief
By ANDREW BARY

Now that the leading financial companies have passed their stress tests, investors are eager to buy bank stocks again. But which ones?

WALL STREET CHEERED THE GOVERNMENT'S EAGERLY awaited release last week of stress tests on 19 leading financial companies. Bank stocks gained 36%, extending a furious rally that has produced a 135% gain in the widely followed KBW Bank Index from its March lows.

Investors viewed the stress tests as showing that the major public financial companies can handle potential loan losses even in a draconian economic scenario with a manageable amount of new equity capital -- or no new capital at all. The big fear had been that banks would have to resort to capital raising that would massively dilute existing common shareholders.

Now institutional investors are eager to buy financial stocks. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo took advantage of growing institutional demand for new stock issues immediately after the stress-test results were released Thursday.

"A lot of money managers were underweighted in bank stocks relative to their benchmarks, and they've been panicked buyers because of what they see as an inflection point," says John McDonald, banking analyst at Sanford Bernstein.

There were broad gains through the sector. Fifth Third soared 120% to $8.49; PNC Financial rose 40% to $53.08; Bank of America gained 63% to $14.17, and Wells Fargo gained 44% to $28.18, helped by a plug from Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway is Wells' largest holder.
Credit-card specialists American Express and Capital One were strong; AmEx shares rose 17% in the five sessions to $28.40, and Capital One gained 81% to $31.34. Because the stress tests took a rosier-than-anticipated view of potential credit-card losses, AmEx and Capital One weren't deemed to be capital-deficient. Many on Wall Street had expected that Capital One would be forced to boost capital.

Analysts saw room for further gains in the sector, but investors need to recognize that profits for this year are likely to be weak, and that 2010 earnings may continue to be depressed by elevated losses on commercial-real-estate mortgages and on home-equity and credit-card loans.
Investors are starting to look at what analysts call "normalized" earnings, or what banks can earn in a more benign economic and credit environment, which may not come until 2011. Banks are generally trading for four to nine times those normalized earnings.

Those potential profits, however, are subject to a host of variables, including the economy, interest rates, bank capital requirements and asset returns. McDonald favors some of the stronger banks, including JPMorgan Chase and PNC. JPMorgan, which rose 20% to $38.94 last week, now is valued at around seven times normalized earnings of more than $5 a share.

UNTIL RECENTLY, INVESTORS FEARFUL about earnings power tended to value banks on tangible book value, a conservative measure of shareholder equity. "Two weeks ago, the only thing people cared about was price to tangible book," says Barclays Capital analyst Jason Goldberg. "Now it's price to normalized earnings. Two weeks from now, who knows what it will be?"

Goldberg favors Bank of America, whose shares were up sharply despite needing to raise an industry-leading $33.9 billion. The stock trades for less than five times Goldberg's estimate of normalized earnings of $3.47 a share. Wall Street believes BofA can raise required capital without much dilution. The bank said it plans to sell 1.25 billion of common shares and convert some of its preferred stock to common -- and to sell some non-core assets, including the Columbia investment-management business.

Bank of America's $33 billion of preferred stock offers a high-yielding play on the bank's revival. The Series J 7.25% preferred trades around $15 (60% of face value of $25) for a yield of 12%. A former Merrill Lynch preferred issue, now called Series 5, trades for just $9, a fraction of its face value of $25. It has a yield of 11%. The BofA preferred dividends now look more secure, and the common yields next to nothing.
One of best plays for fans of beleaguered Citigroup is its $15 billion of preferred stock, which is due to be converted into common shares in an exchange offer to get under way soon. Citi's Series P preferred traded Friday around $22.50, enabling investors to buy Citi common at around $3 a share, considerably below Citi's close of $4.02. Each preferred share is likely to get 7.3 common shares. The opportunity exists because arbitrageurs can't close the currently wide spread between the preferred and common, with Citi shares virtually impossible to short.

Citi's trust preferred, which is senior to the regular preferred, also could be appealing. Some probably will be converted to common to meet the need for $5.5 billion of additional capital called for in the government stress tests. Citi's Series W trust preferred trades around 15, for a yield of 10%.

Citi's common is a dicier bet because the company's plan to convert more than $50 billion of preferred stock to common to boost key capital ratios could balloon its share count to 23 billion from the current five billion, permanently capping its earnings power. Moreover, the government likely will emerge as a major shareholder, leading to further potential meddling in Citi's business. With Citi's business mix shifting, it's tough to peg normalized earnings power, which could be anywhere from 50 cents to $1 a share.

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